Tourism demand forecasting using a novel high-precision fuzzy time series model

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 管理科學學系暨研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/99125

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題名:	Tourism demand forecasting using a novel high-precision fuzzy time series model
作者:	Tsaur, R.-C.;Kuo, T.-C.
貢獻者:	淡江大學管理科學學系
關鍵詞:	Fuzzy time series;Fourier series;Residual analysis;Japanese tourists;Fore- casting performance
日期:	2014-04-01
上傳時間:	2014-10-15 14:27:36 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Kumamoto: I C I C International
摘要:	Fuzzy time series model has been developed to either improve forecasting accuracy or reduce computation time, whereas a residul analysis in order to improve its forecasting performance is still lack of consideration. In this paper, we propose a novel Fourier method to revise the analysis of residual terms, and then we illustrate it to forecast the Japanese tourists visiting in Taiwan per year. The forecasting results show that our proposed method can derive the best forecasting performance as well as the smallest forecasting error of MAPE in the training sets; in the testing sets, the proposed model is also better to fit the future trend than some forecasting models.
關聯:	International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control 10(2), pp.695-701
顯示於類別:	[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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