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    题名: Tourism demand forecasting using a novel high-precision fuzzy time series model
    作者: Tsaur, R.-C.;Kuo, T.-C.
    贡献者: 淡江大學管理科學學系
    关键词: Fuzzy time series;Fourier series;Residual analysis;Japanese tourists;Fore- casting performance
    日期: 2014-04-01
    上传时间: 2014-10-15 14:27:36 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Kumamoto: I C I C International
    摘要: Fuzzy time series model has been developed to either improve forecasting accuracy or reduce computation time, whereas a residul analysis in order to improve its forecasting performance is still lack of consideration. In this paper, we propose a novel Fourier method to revise the analysis of residual terms, and then we illustrate it to forecast the Japanese tourists visiting in Taiwan per year. The forecasting results show that our proposed method can derive the best forecasting performance as well as the smallest forecasting error of MAPE in the training sets; in the testing sets, the proposed model is also better to fit the future trend than some forecasting models.
    關聯: International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control 10(2), pp.695-701
    显示于类别:[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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