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    題名: Objective estimates of the probability of death in acute burn injury: A Proposed Taiwan Burn Score
    作者: Chen, Chen-Chien;Chen, Li-Ching;Wen, Bor-Shyh;Liu, Shih-Hao;Ma, Hsu
    貢獻者: 淡江大學統計學系
    Childhood Burn Foundation of the Republic of China
    關鍵詞: Burns;burn index;logistic regression;prediction of mortality
    日期: 2012-12
    上傳時間: 2014-09-18 15:27:37 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Baltimore: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
    摘要: BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop an objective model for predicting mortality after burn injury in Taiwan.

    METHODS: From 1997 to 2010, 23,147 patients with acute burn injury in 44 hospitals were retrospectively reviewed. Variables examined were age, sex, depth and extent of burn, inhalation injury, flushing time, hospital admission and referral status, intensive care unit admission, and mortality. Logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate risk factors. Model performance and calibration was evaluated by measures of discrimination and goodness-of-fit statistic, respectively. A nomogram of four major risk factors was used to calculate the probability of mortality.

    RESULTS: Only 22,665 patients (mean [SD] age, 31.05 [22.67] years; mean second-degree and third-degree burn sizes, 8.67% [10.64%] and 3.25% [10.91%], respectively) survived until discharge, for a mortality rate of 2.08%.

    CONCLUSION: Burn depth is an important predictive factor for mortality. An objective model can help estimate the probability of death in acute burn injury.
    關聯: Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery 73(6), pp.1583-1589
    DOI: 10.1097/TA.0b013e318265ff5a
    顯示於類別:[統計學系暨研究所] 期刊論文


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