Tamsui, Taipei : Tamkang University, Department of Management Sciences and Decision Making
Due to the intense international integration in these years, international tourism becomes a booming industry. According to the analysis made by the World Tourism Organization in 2002, the tourism market has major influence in the economic growth for each country or region. The tourism industry would be the fast-growing industry in the twenty-first century. Since the world faces the economic downturn on account of the financial crisis nowadays, the growth rate of the tourism industries worldwide would be still steady. This paper aims at analyzing the monthly time series data of tourists in Macau from 1999 to 2008. By means of econometric analysis, using the E-VIEWS and Gretl software systems, this paper attempts to analyze the impulses of some important affairs which affect the tourist arrivals in Macau. These affairs include the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between Macau and China, the Macau government incentive policy to new casinos’establishment for foreign casino groups in 2002, and its economic growth in these years. This paper also attempts to establish the forecast model to predict the number of tourists in Macau.
Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference in Management Sciences and Decision Making=2009年管理科學與經營決策國際學術研討會論文集, pp.35-38