本研究運用多期SPOT 衛星資料，探討地震崩塌區生態恢復過程之先鋒植被擴增狀況與其空間分佈'並應用灰理論預測先鋒植物全面覆蓋所需時間。當以線性、指數及多相式迴歸預測先鋒植被恢復到完全覆蓋非岩石區，分別約需5.2 、1. 6 、與3 .4年時;灰理論之預測則為2.0 年，其預測模式為x(如1)=72387. 143e0.4704。依現地植被調查，顯示，先鋒植被恢復速度可能依循灰預測模式。且其恢復過程有約兩個月之遲滯期。 We applied multiple SPOT satellite data to evaluate the recovery rate of vegetation in the Chiu-Feng-Er mountain landslide area after the Chi-Chi Earthquake. The grey theory was also applied to predict the time required for pioneer vegetation to completely recover the non-rock landslide area and was compared with the results of linear, exponential, and polynomial regression analysis. While complete recovery of vegetation may take 5.2, 1.6 and 3.4 years predicted by the linear, exponential, and polynomial regression analysis, respectively, it may take 2.0 years according to grey analysis. On the basis of ground investigation, the recovery process of pioneer vegetation in Chiu-Feng-Er Mountain landslide may follow the equation of the grey prediction model, i.e. x(k+1)=72387.143e0.4704. This recovery process exhibited a lag phase of approximately two months.
2001年灰色系統理論與應用學術研討會論文集=The 2001 seminar of applied grey system theory，頁B120-126