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    Title: 台灣民眾統獨立場的持續與變遷
    Other Titles: Change and Continuity of People's Preference on the Taiwan Independence Issue
    Authors: Chen, Lu-Huei;Chou, Ying-Lung
    Contributors: 淡江大學全球政治經濟學系
    Keywords: 民意調查;統一;台灣獨立;政治世代;趨勢分析;Opinion Polls;Political Generations;Taiwan Independence;Trend Studies;Unification
    Date: 2004-07
    Issue Date: 2014-03-19 23:03:03 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市:政治大學東亞研究所
    Abstract: 本研究將運用1994到2003年電話調查資料,分析台灣地區民眾統獨立場的長期分佈趨勢。台灣地區民眾對於未來兩岸關係應該要採取「統一」或是「獨立」的態度分佈,一直是左右兩岸關係以及切割國內政治版圖的重要指標。本研究主要在於探討台灣民眾統獨態度的趨勢,並進一步分析不同政治世代、省籍背景與教育程度的民眾,在統獨態度上長期分佈趨勢與差異。我們認為,台灣地區民眾對於統獨的立場分佈,基本上是有其持續性。當民眾面對的是較為不確定的「統一」或是「獨立」時,會傾向選擇改變不大的「維持現狀」。不過,台灣過去十年來的民主化、政治人物積極鼓吹台灣獨立以及台灣正名運動以及民進黨執政後所採取的諸多「去中國化」措施,也讓台灣民眾支持統一的比例逐漸下降而傾向獨立的比例逐漸上揚。 本文將從政治世代的角度著眼,除了分析台灣地區民眾統獨態度的持續與變遷,最後將分析不同政治世代與省籍背景的民眾,在統獨立場上的差異,並進一步討論不同教育程度的民眾在統獨立場上態度變化的長期趨勢。我們認為,影響台灣與大陸兩岸關係的動力,除了台灣內部的選舉政治所提供的 r 向心力」與「離心力」之外,大陸的諸多舉動也常扮演重要的推手。而「離心力」與「向心力」的較勁,也對台海未來關係的發展,有決定的影響。
    In this study, we demonstrate that the distribution of people’s preferences on independence/unification issue between 1994 and 2003 by employing telephone survey datasets. Whether people preferring. Taiwan independence or unification with mainland China plays critical role on the cross-strait relationship and electoral politics in Taiwan. We demonstrated the longitudinal trend of people’s preferences on Taiwan independence issue, and analyze how people’s political generation, ethnicity, and level of education might affect their preferences. We demonstrated that people’s preferences on this issue are quite stable over last decade. There were less than 20% respondents taking either “inde-pendence” or “unification” preference between 1994 and 2003, but almost one out of two respondents taking “maintaining status quo now, deciding what to do later” or “maintaining the Status quo indefinitely” stances. It indicates that most people in Taiwan take ambiguous stance on the independence/unification issue because they believe that maintaining the status quo is the best option for them at this moment. However, we also demonstrated that the proportion of Taiwan independence preference increased after the 2001 legislative elections. It indicated that major politicians proposing Taiwanese identity and Taiwan independence, also with election mechanism playing more important role in Taiwan, increases the popularity of Taiwan independence.
    Relation: 東亞研究=East Asia Studies 35(2),頁143-186
    Appears in Collections:[全球政治經濟學系] 期刊論文

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