本文研究目的為建立台灣地區北、中、南及東部區域一日暴雨之區域頻率模式，所用方法為指數洪水法(index flood method)配合線性動差推估參數，首先以線性動差為基礎的不一致(discordancy)及異質性(heterogeneity)估量評估同一區域之資料是否一致及均勻，其次以適合度(goodness-of-fit)估量選取最佳無因次區域年最大一日雨量機率分佈，各站發生不同迴歸期之一日暴雨即可據以推估。本文分區蒐集共75個雨量站的年最大一日雨量，經前述步驟分析得北、中、南及東部區域最佳頻率分佈分別為皮爾遜第III 型分佈(Pearson type III distribution)、通用帕雷托分佈(generalized Pareto distribution)、皮爾遜第III 型分佈(Pearson type III distribution)及三參數對數常態分佈(three-parameter lognormal distribution)。各區域各站年最大一日暴雨與迴歸期之關係建立後即可探討各站歷史暴雨事件之發生頻率。 This study aims to establish the frequency models of annual maximum 1-day rainfall for the north, central, south, and east regions in Taiwan. The methodology adopted in this study is the index flood method associated with parameter estimation using L-moments. The L-moment based discordancy and heterogeneity measures are used first to detect the unusual data, followed by using goodness-of-fit measure to choose the best dimensionless regional frequency models for each region. The frequency analysis of each site in each region can then be made by index flood method. Seventy-five annual maximum 1-day rainfall data are selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results shows that the best data fitted dimensionless regional model for north, central, south, and east regions are Pearson type III distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, Pearson type III distribution, and three-parameter lognormal distribution, respectively. In addition to estimate the 1-day rainfall of various return periods for each region, the frequencies of severe historical storms for each region are also explored.
第十五屆水利工程研討會論文集=Proceedings of the 15th Hydraulic Engineering Conference，8頁