|摘要: ||水管理問題為一牽涉甚廣且難以解決的資源 調配問題,在其決策過程中常須同時考量經濟、社 會、政治和法規等目標,以選擇一個符合社會整體 利益的最佳管理策略。台灣地區並無豐沛的水資 源可茲利用,如何有效的調配有限的水資源以獲得 最佳的社會利益可說是一件極為重要的工作。本 研究以水管理為對象,利用系統分析之技巧發展一 個包括用水、水力發電、廢水處理、河川水質和 環境影響衝擊等五個目標的多目標規劃模式 (MultiObjective Water Management,MOWM,model),以做為水資源 調配與水質管理問題之決策分析工具。MOWM模式將 流域視為一多階多選擇的系統,以界限隱式列舉法 搜尋系統之最佳解,再利用多目標規劃之權重法及 限制式法或方案產生法產生一些非劣勢解或替代 方案以做為決策分析之依據。經由假設案例之驗 證結果證實MOWM確實可產生一些有助於決策的資訊 ,未來尚可配合有關的資料庫與專家系統將其發展 為水管理決策支援系統。|
The solution and decision on water management problem, as well as environmental related problems, have become more complex and challenging. To make best utilization of the limited and polluted water resources, it is necessary to evaluate all types of discharge and withdrawal of the water body, which are usually affected by the economic, environmental, social, political and legal factors. Whereas, the final decision is always made with a large degree of uncertainty and has to meet all interested objectives, most of which are qualitative and conflicting with each other. In this study, a multiobjective optimization madel (MOWM model) was developed to include five objectives: water use benefit, hydropower development benefit, waste water treatment cost, water quality and environmental impact for water management. In MOWM model, a weighting coefficient is given to each of these objectives so that the effectiveness can be measured properly as desired. MOWM model treats a river basin as a multistage system and employs an efficient implicit enumeration algorithm to find the optimal solution and a set of functional and diverse solutions. In MOWM model, a stage is a river reach that can be a river branch, a discharger, a tributary, a withdrawal, or a lock and dam, with or without options. According to the results of a hypothetical case study, MOWM model can offer some useful information for decisionmakers of the water management to evaluate and confirm the economic and water quality projects. In the near future, combined with the related data to enforce its function, MOWM model can be used to develop a decision support system for water management.