不同情境下國防預算短中期預測之研究：從國防部門角度

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Title:	不同情境下國防預算短中期預測之研究：從國防部門角度
Other Titles:	A Study on Forecasting of Defence Budget under Situations：The Department of Defense Perspective
Authors:	葉金成;陳美惠;盧斯駿
Contributors:	淡江大學會計學系
Keywords:	國防預算;軍力估測;系統動態;Defense Budget;Military Power Estimation;System Dynamics
Date:	2002-06
Issue Date:	2014-02-12 14:55:30 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	我國近年來經濟成長趨緩，政府施政不斷擴張社福等支出，導致財政赤字不斷擴大，同時，國防部門獲得之預算逐年持續下降，反觀中共近年來國防費在國防急需現代化和經濟力支持下呈現高度成長，使軍力不斷擴張，亞太地區所受威脅日益擴大，更影響台海穩定情勢。因此，國防部門正面臨內部資源競爭和外在威脅擴大雙重威脅。本研究以變動中之國防情境觀點，採用系統動態學為方法論建構我國國防部門之預算獲得模型，用以預測國防預算之獲得、詮釋在外在威脅與預算結構交互運作所產生之結果，研究結果指出我國未來國防部門獲得預算於短中期內未能大幅成長，亦顯示由於民意對海峽緊張情境不同認知所能產生之不同防衛能力，可提供國防施政之參考。 The past a few years, the lower economic growth and the continuouslyexpanded social welfare expenditure, lead to unceasing magnificationof annual fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the budget acquisition of defencedepartment sustainedly decreases year by year. On the other hand,under starving for defence modernization and highly support fromeconomic power, the defence spending of the PRC exhibits high growthpace, which continuously expand the military power, bring the threattoward Asia Pacific Zone and influence stable condition on TaiwanStraits. Hence, the DoD faces the problems of internal resourcecompetition and external threat from Mainland China. The studyproposed a defence budget dynamic acquisition model by the systemdynamics methodology. This model interprets the result of theinteraction among the budget acquisition, external threats and budgetstructure. The result shows that the acquisition of the defence budgetwill not substantially grow for the short to medium period , and thatthe different defence capability results from the varied perception ofthe Straits situation among public opinions.
Relation:	第十屆國防管理學術暨實務研討會論文集(上冊)，頁339-356
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Accounting] Proceeding

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