Baseline Forecasting for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Taiwan---A Dynamic CGE Analysis

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Title:	Baseline Forecasting for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Taiwan---A Dynamic CGE Analysis
Authors:	Li, Ping-Cheng;Hsu, Shih-Hsun;Lin, Hsing-Hua;Huang, Chung-Huang;Lin, Shih-Mo
Contributors:	淡江大學產業經濟學系
Keywords:	溫室氣體;台灣;動態分析;預測;Greenhouse Gas;Taiwan;Dynamic Analysis;Forecasting
Date:	2000-11
Issue Date:	2014-02-12 12:28:04 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	The analysis of GHG emission baseline in this paper is based on forecasting results from TAIGEM-D. TAIGEM-D (TAIwan General Equilibrium Model-Dynamic) is a dynamic, multisectoral, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Taiwan's economy, developed specifically to analyze climate change response issues. TAIGEM-D is derived from the Australian ORANI model and the MONASH model. The most significant features that distinguish TAIGEM-D and MONASH are the coverage of GHG emissions and the inclusion of interfuel substitution and technology bundles. We use historical simulations to generate up-to-date data for our baseline forecasting. A comparison with those projection results from Taiwan MARKAL model in Taiwan is provided. Although both models show a similar pattern of projection results, there are significant differences in the models' projections of C0/sub 2/ emission in the electricity sector and future energy structure. Results show that the accuracy of baseline projection depends on the model used and the assumptions made. However, projection results from different models, either top-down or bottom-up models, complement each other.
Relation:	亞太地區溫室氣溫與環境污染減量策略國際學術研討會I、II=2000 Taipei Conference on Policies for Greenhouse Gases Reduction and Pollution Control in Asian-Pacific I、II，頁44-62
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Industrial Economics] Proceeding

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