In this study, the authors have proposed and demonstrated the application of probabilistic dynamic programming for dynamic route guidance with embedded driver's route choice behavior within an intercity context. The dynamic nature of consecutive en-route routing behavior is consider as node-to-node decisions in response to provision of the route guidance information either through VMS or in-vehicle navigation devices. This particular issue has been successfully modeled under the notion of the "Indifference Bands" with Probit model specifications to capture the node-to-node decision sequence. The probability of "route switching" at each decision node along the route can therefore be estimated under these model specifications. Meanwhile, the actions along the entire trip can be constructed as a multi-stage decision process with a decision-tree-like representation such that the corresponded Dynamic Program is specified with link length as time saving along with correspondent switching probability at each node. The experimental analysis was demonstrated with a north-region intercity network in Taiwan, consisting three major North-South freeways and expressway along with some East-West connectors. A simulation program DYNATAIWAN was implemented to generate the time-dependent network flow using historical O-D data. With selected sample of drivers, the results have shown that alternative routes can be generated for drivers departing at same time window.
關聯:
中華民國運輸學會97年年會暨國際學術論文研討會論文集=Proceedings of International Conference And Annual Meeting of Chinese Institute of Transportation，1頁
