「去工業化」(deindustrialization)已是全球普遍發生的現象，其現象為製造業之產出於GDP之比重及製造業之就業人口於總就業人口中之比例，漸趨下降，而被稱為第三產業之服務業，於此兩方面則快速成長。其發生的原因主要有三種，即隨著科技發展所造成之製造業生產力提高、工業化後人們所得增加而使需求型態由有形製造物品轉為無形之服務、及全球化競爭下為降低成本而委外生產(outsourcing)及大量進口所引起之貿易失衡。西歐國家如美國及德國就深受其害，造成製造業就業機會之大量流失。deindustrialization 當然也發生在台灣，最明顯的是近年來許多台商為降低勞務成本而將工廠外移至中國，它讓政府擔心如此對中國之大量投資會掏空台灣產業，但果真如此嗎?真相為何呢?本研究利用美國經濟政策研究院(Economic Policy Institute, EPI)之經濟學家Josh Bivens所使用以檢驗美國deindustrialization 現象及分析其主要原因之以經濟學基本供需恆等式所推導之數學式為根本，利用行政院主計處之2000-2006統計資料，以MS Excel逐項計算出有關之關鍵之參數數值，用以檢視台灣之deindustrialization現象，並分析其原因，發現在台廠商由於發展高科技產品，使得生產力提高、就業人口不降反升，造成有益之deindustrialization現象，因此並無所謂掏空現象發生，對於因工廠外移而引起之低技術勞工失業情況，本研究亦提出改善建議。 The deindustrialization is a worldwide trend happened naturally as the economical growth reaches certain levels in many countries. The phenomena of it are the GDP ratio of the manufacturing sector and the manufacturing employment ratio over the total employment decline rapidly. In contrast to it, those of the tertiary sector which is the service rise abruptly. The main causes of it are: (1) When people's incomes increase due to industrialization, the demand pattern changes from manufacturing goods to services; (2) Due to the advance of manufacturing technologies, the productivities rise higher and higher, which may impact employment negatively or increase employment positively; and (3) Owing to the keen price competition under the globalization context, firms lower their costs by outsourcing products and services, which causes serious trade imbalance. Some countries like U.S. and Germany have suffered serious manufacturing job loss due to industrialization. In Taiwan, the deindustrialization phenomenon also occurred. The most representative phenomena are that many manufacturing firms have moved their factories to China to lower their labor costs. Many people believe that moving the factories to China will hallow out Taiwan's industry. Is it true? What really happens? This study use the mathematical formulas as the basic tool, which is developed by the economist of Economic Policy Institute (EPI) in American, Dr. Josh Bivens, from the basic supply-demand identity in his 2004 paper discussing the deindustrialization in U.S. from 1998 to 2003 and analyzing the root causes of it. We use this tool with the official economic statistical data of Taiwan from 2000 to 2006 to generate the values of the related parameters by computing item by item with the MS Excel to investigate how deindustrialization affects Taiwan's manufacturing industry after pouring totally US$ 80 billion's investments to China. The results show that the manufacturing employment in Taiwan from 2000-2006 has not decreased but increased instead. The data show that the main cause is the rise of the productivities that can be attributed to the Taiwanese firms'pursuit of high-tech products. The deindustrialization is actually favoring to Taiwanese industry and does not cause any hallowing-out effect. For those un-employment caused by the moving out of factories, we also provide some suggestions of improvements.
