|Abstract: ||近年來股票指數已由五千多點漲至八千點, 而股票指數上漲, 銀行股扮演著重要的角色, 因而受到投資大眾的注意, 而在眾多的銀行股中, 如何選擇, 是投資大眾所注目的。 當銀行在追求成長發展之過程中, 其規模會隨著時間之經過, 以增資方式而逐漸變大, 使得股權結構發生改變, 進而影響到股價的變動。在文獻中, 國內外的學者分別只探討績效對股價之影響及公司規模對股價之影響, 而未有人探討過績效對股價之影響再加入公司規模這變數, 本人特就此課題深入研究以瞭解它們之間的變化。 本研究是以上市十一家銀行為研究對象, 研究期間為民國八十年至民國八十四年, 選取二十五項財務比率為經營績效的衡量指標, 經由因素分析及集群分析, 將銀行分為幾群。衡量規模大小則為四項指標,經主成份分析將銀行分為規模大及小二群, 再加上股價以雙因子變異數分析, 以做實證研究, 研究結果如下: (1)經營績效與股價之間的關係, 當股價受到經營績效影響時, 彰銀、華銀、一銀、中銀、東企及中信的年報酬率皆比竹企、高企、南企、北企及中企來的高。(2)銀行規模大小與股價的報酬率會隨著時間的不同而會有不同的結果, 當市場為多頭市場時, 有所謂的「正向規模效應」。當市場在空頭市場時,會有所謂的「反向規模效應」。(3)當市場是多頭市場時, 在銀行股方面可注意一下大規模及經營績效良好的銀行。相反的當市場為空頭市場時, 銀行股將不列入投資組合的考慮。|
In recent years as stock market index has shoot from five thousand to eight thousand points, bank stocks have played a pivotal role and held the limelight. Among so many choices, how to make a brilliant choice is the key of public concern. A bank will get its scale augmenting by means of capital increase with passage of time to cause transformation of stockholding structure and, in turn, change of stock prices. Literature indicate that scholars both at home and abroad have probed into only the influence of business performance upon stock prices and influence of company scale upon stock prices. Not any scholars have looked into the influence of business performance upon stock prices coupled with the variable of the company scale. I'd like to, therefore, study this to make sure of the change between such factors. The study takes 11 listed banks as samples and covers the period of 1991-1995, taking 25 financial ratios as the indexes to weigh performance. Through factor analysis and grouping analysis, we divide banks into several groups with four index to rate the scale. Through analysis of principal factors, the sample banks are classified into two groups, big and small. Further through double- factory variable analysis of stock prices, we conduct positive study and bring up the following findings: (1) Relationship between business performance and stock prices: When the stock prices are subject to influence of business performance, Chang Hua Bank, Hua Nan Bank, Chinese Bank, Taitung Business Bank and Chinstrust outperform Hsinchu Business Bank, Kaohsiung Business Bank, Tainan Business Bank and Taichung Business Bank in terms of annual return rate of investment. (2) Bank scales and return rate of stock prices vary according to different time. In a bull market, there will be the so-called "positive scale effect". In a bear market, there will be the so-called "reverse scale effect."(3) Investors are advised to watch banks of large scale and good business performance in a bull market. On the contrary, in a bear market, bank stocks are not covered under the investment portfolio.