本文針對台灣觀光旅遊業，探討自1956年至2000年期間，最可能影響旅遊業榮枯之實質國內生產毛額、消費者物價及匯率等三個總體經濟因素與作為旅遊業興盛指標的歷年來台觀光人數及觀光外匯收入之長、短期互動影響模式。Johansen共整發現，五個選取變數間存在長期均衡的關係，其共移模式含線性趨勢及二次趨勢；變數間短期互動，由Granger（1988）含誤差修正項之因果關係得知，除了匯率走勢外，來台觀光客人數的變化，對CPI、實質GDP、及觀光外匯收入等變數的走勢，均呈現顯著相對領先的地位，此外，實質GDP為觀光外匯收入之顯著領先指標；由衝擊反應函數得知：短期間，匯率的起落（升、貶），對來台觀光人數的所造成的衝擊，扮演著重要的角色，長期而言，對來台觀光人數的衝擊，取而代之的為實質GDP以及觀光外匯收入；由變異數分解可歸納：匯率以及實質的GDP波動在解釋觀光客人數的變異上，在長、短期扮演著一個輪動解釋觀光客人數變異之兩個重要關鍵角色，而來台觀光人數在解釋觀光外匯收入波動上，具有較強的解釋力。綜合上述，不難發現，無論短期或長期，來台觀光人數與觀光外匯收入以及實質GDP具有較強的互動關係；各種證據亦顯示，來台觀光客人數的變化，對CPI、實質GDP、及觀光外匯收入等變數的走勢，均呈現顯著影響，然而匯率升貶卻是影響來台觀光旅客人數的重要指標。 Emphasized on the travel industries of Taiwan, this study investigatesthe long-term and short-term dynamic relationships among the variablesof travel indeices---inbound visitor and inbound revenue andmacroeconomic factors-real gross domestic product (GDP), consumerprice index (CPI) and exchange rate for the sample periods from 1956through 2000. A long-term equilibrium relationship in the presence oflinear trend and quadratic trend is found from the Johansen'scointegration test. Regarding the short-term interaction among thosevariables, Granger causality with the error correction model foundthat, except for the trend of exchange rate, the change of the numberof inbound visitors shows a significant leading position to the trendof CPI, real GDP and inbound revenue. Besides, real GDP was fuondobviously preceding the inbound revenue. From impulse responsefunction, we found that the exchange rate fluctuation were the mainimpulse to the number of inbound visitors in short period. However,for a longer period, the main impulse to the number of inboundvisitors was replaced by real GDP and inbound revenue. Finally,variance decomposition found that exchange rate and real GDP play twokey roles in explanation of the variance of the number of inboundvisitors no matter in short or long period, whereas it is moreconvincible to explain the variance of inbound revenue by the numberof inbound Visitors. In view of all the above, it is easy to findinbound visitor, inbound revenue and Real GDP are more stronglyrelated to each other at both short and long term. Various kinds ofevidence also indicate that the change of the number of inboundvisitors shows significant influence on the trend of CPI, real GDP andinbound revenue. However, the exchange rate fluctuation is the mainfactor to affect the number of inbound visitors.
