| 摘要: | 觀光業素有無煙囪工業之稱，也是許多國家賺取外匯收入的重要來源，提升國家吸引力，及創造當地就業機會。本研究探討來台主要國之日本、美國、港澳、韓國、馬來西亞、新加坡、印尼、菲律賓、泰國、加拿大、澳洲及南非等十二個國家於1971 年至2007 年間之主要來台人數與總體經濟變數間之關係。另外，影響旅遊人數之SARS 事件及季節性因素也在模型中一併考量，並進一步考慮波動因素，採用GARCH(1,1)模型進行分析，得以深入探討其間之關連性。實證結果發現影響各國來台人數之總體經濟變數有顯著差異，情況並不一致，因此，對於不同國家將需要有不同之行銷方式。而SARS 事件對多數國家來台人數造成相當大的衝擊，韓國是唯一例外。
Tourism industry has been known as non-Chimney industry and it is also important for gaining foreign exchange earnings, promoting countries' attractions, and improving the employment. This paper investigates relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the number of visitors in Taiwan from 1971 to 2007. The majority number of visitors came from twelve countries, including Japan, United States, Hon Kong and Macau, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippine, Thailand, Canada, Australia, and South Africa. The SARS event and seasonal effects are also concerned in this paper. Further, the GARCH(1,1) model is used for considering the time-varying volatility. The empirical results are shown that the negative relationship between macroeconomic variables and number of visitors in Taiwan are different for each country, therefore, we need to contribute different marketing strategies for different countries. Finally, the SARS event is significant shock to visitors, and Korea is the exception. |
