本文利用混沌理論分析七二水災在神木村及其前三年在日月潭地區日降雨強度的時間系列變化，分別以不等的降雨強度為門檻值衡量降雨頻率，觀察嵌入維度的變化，檢測此次七二水災降雨事件相空間的複雜程度，目的在找出?藏在這複雜降雨系列中一再重複的規律性，期獲得七二水災降雨動力特性的相關維度，並據以推求此次引致山崩的降雨可預報期。文中，並對七二水災造成的崩坍及921地震前後的崩坍，以影像處理軟體eVision分析山崩判釋圖，以獲得山崩面積大小與位置座標，分別依其發生地點距車籠埔斷層之遠近及其崩坍面積大小排序，計算等級相關係數，以反映七二水災的崩坍崩坍事件與921車籠埔斷層線關聯程度。 This paper studies the rainfall dynamic behavior induced by the typhoon Mindulle using the chaos theory. To investigate the complexity of this rainfall event, several thresholds of rainfall intensity in time series are used to calculate the embedding dimensions. Then, a correlation dimension to response the dynamic behavior in this time series of rainfall is obtained. The location of landslide triggered by this rainfall event is also correlated to the landslides by 921 earthquake. The eVision software is employed to obtain the size and location coordinates of a landslide area by the photo image technique. The rank correlation coefficient in statistics is adopted to quantify the degree of correlation between these two events.
