| 摘要: | 本研究係以LINGO最佳化程式及情境分析法來評估台灣糧食自給自足的可行性，評估在不同人口成長下所需要開發新生水資源以達到糧食及水資源永續的可能成本，並且探討未來人口及糧食價格趨勢，對於自給自足的目標做出市場可行性評估、農地可行性評估、水資源可行性評估、新生水資源評估，並總結出綜合性評估後做出台灣將來調適因應糧食危機的方針及策略。
研究中蒐集並彙整統計近十年來的台灣糧食相關數據，包含了人口趨勢、稻米供給量、穀物供給量、稻米產量與面積、單位面積灌溉需水量等等來估計糧食百分之百自給時的需水量，再以LINGO套裝軟體計算開發新生水資源包含新建造水庫(21.3元/噸)、再生水回收(20元/噸)、海水淡化(30元/噸)和雨水回收(10.7元/噸)等方案複合使用下的成本金額最佳化。
由文獻資料整理評估台灣有可以達到糧食自給自足的條件，首要工作是完成新生水資源的計畫，其中最重要的水資源是海水淡化，且需要龐大的開發經費。永續糧食及水資源都是非常重要的事情但政府尚未發覺其重要性。未來策略除了開發新生水資源外應以提升農村附加價植、改變國人飲食習慣、提高雜糧作物等漸進的配套措施使糧食自給率增加。
This study is based on LINGO Optimizer and scenario analysis to evaluate the feasibility of Taiwan''s food self-sufficiency, population growth in a different assessment of the need to develop new water resources in order to achieve sustainable food and water may cost, and discuss the future population and food price trends, made for self-sufficiency target market feasibility assessment, feasibility assessment of agricultural land, water resources feasibility assessment, new water resources assessment and concluded that Taiwan was made after a comprehensive assessment of the future adaptation in response to the food crisis policy and strategy.
The researcher collects statistical data related to food in Taiwan over the past decade, including demographic trends, the supply of rice and grain and the area of rice production per unit area of irrigation water, etc. to estimate the amount of water to achieve the goal of Taiwan''s food self-sufficiency. Then calculate the most optimal cost of the program about the construction of new water reservoir (21.3 NT. / tons), resurgent water (20 NT. / tons), desalination (30 NT. / tons) and rainwater collected system (10.7NT. / tons).
Analyzing the literature, the researcher finds that food self-sufficiency can be achieved in Taiwan. The priority is to complete the projects of nascent water resources and the most important task of those projects is water desalination. However, it requires huge funds to develop. Management of sustainable food and water are very important tasks, but the government has not awarded that. In addition to developing new water resources to enhance the value of rural areas, the supplement of the projects, such as changing Taiwanese’s eating habits and stimulating the quantities of crops to increase food self-sufficiency rate in Taiwan. |
