目前台灣之廢棄物處理幾乎已轉為焚化來取代掩埋，然而焚化後的灰渣與不可燃廢棄物仍繼續以掩埋作為其主要之處理方法。許多掩埋場在設計時並未經過嚴密的危害度及風險評估，因此尚有值得探討的地方。本研究在既有污染物傳輸理論之基礎上，導入蒙地卡羅不確定性分析方法，使評估結果更具代表性及應用價值。 本研究利用LandSim軟體來分析掩埋場汙染物之傳輸情形。首先使用假設場址針對相關參數，如雨量Pw、最終掩埋層厚度Tfw、廢棄物孔隙率nw、廢棄物乾密度Dw、廢棄物田間容水量 Cw、襯墊層含水量wlg、不飽和區路徑長度Luz、不飽和區含水量wuz、不飽和區導水度kuz、含水層路徑寬度Waz、含水層混和層厚度Taz、含水層導水度kaz、含水層區域梯度iaz，及含水層路徑孔隙率naz等進行掩埋場參數變異性分析，以了解各參數對汙染物濃度之影響程度。接著以山豬窟掩埋場為例，利用汙染物傳輸及蒙地卡羅不確定性分析，來探討掩埋場滲出水污染對地下水或人體造成的危害度。針對山豬窟掩埋場第一期與第二期掩埋場區掩埋物之不同，分別探討氨氮、砷、鎘、銅、汞、鋅之濃度變化。根據研究結果顯示，在LandSim模擬下只有氨氮會超標，值得特別注意。本研究在掩埋場滲出水污染傳輸上，提供了一個具危害度及風險觀念的模擬方法，其成果可作為掩埋場安全管理及擬定污染物防治決策之參考。 The incineration ashes and the non-combustible wastes are primarily buried underground. However, there is seldom doing hazard analysis for the landfills. It is an important issue for disaster mitigations. Thus, this study will employ the Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis method based on the contaminants transportation theory to explore this topic. In this study, the contaminants transportation is performed by the software of LandSim. Parameter studies are first done to investigate the influence of factors on the landfill pollutants transportation. These factors include the infiltration to open waste(Pw)、final waste thickness (Tfw)、waste porosity (nw)、waste dry density (Dw)、waste field capacity (Cw)、liner geometry moisture content (wlg)、unsaturated zone pathway length (Luz)、unsaturated pathway moisture content (wuz)、unsaturated zone conductivity (kuz)、aquifer zone pathway width (Waz)、aquifer zone mixing zone thickness (Taz)、aquifer zone conductivity (kaz)、aquifer zone regional gradient (iaz), and aquifer zone pathway porosity (naz). The effects of parameter uncertainty on the contaminant concentration of the landfill are examined thoroughly. Following, a case study of Shan Chu Keng Landfill is performed to survey the influence of pollution on the underground water and human’s health in neighborhood areas. The pollutants under study include Ammoniacal_N、Arsenic、Cadmium、Copper、Mercury, and Zinc. According to the analysis results, it is found out that only the Ammonia concentration excesses the standard of EPA in Taiwan and should put more attention. Based on the hazard analysis with the concept of risk of landfill in this research, it supplies useful information and serves as an effective auxiliary tool to design the countermeasures to reduce the hazards of pollution of landfill leachate. Key word:Landfills, Leachate, Monte-Carlo Uncertainty Analysis, LandSim, Contaminant transport.
