隨著資訊與通訊技術的快速發展，使得交通運輸系統運作進入嶄新的時代，加上無所不在（Ubiquitous）網路的來臨，人們對即時化資訊的需求日益倍增，即時交通資訊服務成為ITS的重要一環，亦是各國運輸政策發展重點之一。科技快速進步，技術預測已成為科技管理領域中相當重要的研究主題之一，但在浩瀚無邊的資訊中，如何去揭示與挖掘出隱含的、先前未知的並有潛在價值的訊息。有鑑於此，本研究希望藉由技術挖掘方法，建立一套完善、縝密的程序與方法，有效地由公開專利資訊中獲取ATIS技術資訊。 本研究將技術挖掘與專利分析相結合，藉由文獻彙整以及專家訪談取得專利技術關鍵字，並根據我國與美國公開專利資料庫之過去技術的發展軌跡推估未來之技術發展，接著運用S型Logistic成長曲線瞭解目前ATIS之技術現況與演進過程，再以生命週期理論評估目前ATIS技術之成熟度，並推估出各技術所處階段。為使本研究結果更具可靠性，除了透過量化客觀的方式之外，還藉由專家學者主觀認定相互驗證，以判斷ATIS技術之重要度而作為ATIS未來技術發展優先順序之評估與衡量依據。 經由實證分析結果顯示，專利資料庫檢索結果與專家問卷分析結果大致相符，不論是美國或是台灣，ATIS整體發展目前正處於基礎技術階段，其中又以衛星定位系統、RFID/NFC、影像偵測、雷達微波偵測與光纖傳輸等技術應用較具有發展性，而雲端演算技術則為近幾年興起的一項新技術。綜整研究結果，ATIS未來發展不僅須尋求ATIS技術缺口，對於重點技術應積極導入研發人才與技術能量。本研究彙整之ATIS相關技術產出資料，不但可作為ITS產官學相關研究人員與決策者之輔助參考，所提供之分析程序亦可供其他領域參考應用。 Owing to rapid development of information and communication technologies operations of transportation systems are facing a new era. With ubiquitous network people increasingly demand real-time information that makes real-time traffic information become one of attractive services in ITS. Technological forecasting is currently one of the most important research topics in the field of technology management. It is very necessary to find out and search the implicit, previously unknown and potentially valuable information in the big data world. Therefore, this study aims at establishing one of comprehensive and rigorous procedures for ATIS applications by tech mining. The study combines the tech mining with patent analysis together to find out the keywords of ATIS technologies by using expert interviews and literature review. Technological evolutionary trends are forecasted based on patent database from TIPO and USPTO. Current status of ATIS technologies and their progress can be indentified with logistic curve model. The maturity of current ATIS technologies can be assessed by using life cycle theory. Except quantitative results of the empirical study with tech mining and patent analysis, in-depth interviews with experts by using AHP are also made for verifying results each other. This approach will, hence, provide more reliable evidence for deploying ATIS technological strategies and their priorities in the future. The empirical study shows that there are no significant variation between results of patent analysis together with tech mining and those of the experts’ opinions. No matter in USA or in Taiwan, current status of ATIS technological development is in the basic stage. The Global Positioning System (GPS), RFID / NFC, image detection, radar microwave motion sensor and optical fiber transmission are the promising technologies in the future. In addition, cloud computing technology is also a very popular one in recent years. In summary, not only technological gaps of the development of ATIS should be reduced intensively but also R & D human resources should be explored as well. The output of this study can provide useful information for ATIS researchers and experts and the approach in this study can also be adapted to other disciplines with appropriate modifications.
