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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/94200

    Title: 專利分析應用於先進用路人資訊系統技術發展預測之研究
    Other Titles: Forecast of technology development of advanced traveler information system by using patent analysis
    Authors: 周采潔;Chou, Tsai-Chieh
    Contributors: 淡江大學運輸管理學系碩士班
    Keywords: 先進旅行者資訊系統(ATIS);技術挖掘;專利檢索;專利分析;技術預測;技術生命週期;ATIS;Patent Search;Patent analysis;technology forecasting;Technology life cycle
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-01-23 14:08:03 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 隨著資訊與通訊技術的快速發展,使得交通運輸系統運作進入嶄新的時代,加上無所不在(Ubiquitous)網路的來臨,人們對即時化資訊的需求日益倍增,即時交通資訊服務成為ITS的重要一環,亦是各國運輸政策發展重點之一。科技快速進步,技術預測已成為科技管理領域中相當重要的研究主題之一,但在浩瀚無邊的資訊中,如何去揭示與挖掘出隱含的、先前未知的並有潛在價值的訊息。有鑑於此,本研究希望藉由技術挖掘方法,建立一套完善、縝密的程序與方法,有效地由公開專利資訊中獲取ATIS技術資訊。
    Owing to rapid development of information and communication technologies operations of transportation systems are facing a new era. With ubiquitous network people increasingly demand real-time information that makes real-time traffic information become one of attractive services in ITS. Technological forecasting is currently one of the most important research topics in the field of technology management. It is very necessary to find out and search the implicit, previously unknown and potentially valuable information in the big data world. Therefore, this study aims at establishing one of comprehensive and rigorous procedures for ATIS applications by tech mining.
    The study combines the tech mining with patent analysis together to find out the keywords of ATIS technologies by using expert interviews and literature review. Technological evolutionary trends are forecasted based on patent database from TIPO and USPTO. Current status of ATIS technologies and their progress can be indentified with logistic curve model. The maturity of current ATIS technologies can be assessed by using life cycle theory. Except quantitative results of the empirical study with tech mining and patent analysis, in-depth interviews with experts by using AHP are also made for verifying results each other. This approach will, hence, provide more reliable evidence for deploying ATIS technological strategies and their priorities in the future.
    The empirical study shows that there are no significant variation between results of patent analysis together with tech mining and those of the experts’ opinions. No matter in USA or in Taiwan, current status of ATIS technological development is in the basic stage. The Global Positioning System (GPS), RFID / NFC, image detection, radar microwave motion sensor and optical fiber transmission are the promising technologies in the future. In addition, cloud computing technology is also a very popular one in recent years. In summary, not only technological gaps of the development of ATIS should be reduced intensively but also R & D human resources should be explored as well. The output of this study can provide useful information for ATIS researchers and experts and the approach in this study can also be adapted to other disciplines with appropriate modifications.
    Appears in Collections:[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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