一國制度面的因素是否會影響金融自由化政策對經濟成長的效果,在理論或實證的文獻上一直沒有比較深入的探討。為探討此一主題,本文以88個國家作為實證樣本,並將其進一步分為21個已開發及68個開發中國家,分別探討制度、金融自由化與經濟成長之間的關係。本研究所使用的金融自由化指標為依據Bekaert et al.(2005)所發展資本市場開放時間所構建的虛擬變數,而資料研究期間為1980年至2004年。我們利用差異中之差異法(difference-in-difference, DID)及自我迴歸遞延分配模型(autoregressive distributed lag model, ARDL)模型來進行估計,而主要的研究成果如下:
4.探討金融自由化及制度面指標的經濟成長的長短期影響,估計結果為金融自由化指標與法律與秩序指 標對成長率有短期影響效果。 The role of institutional factors played in the liberalization-growth nexus has been rarely investigated in the past theoretical or empirical studies. With this concern, this thesis uses a sample of 88 countries, with 21 developed and 67 developing countries, over the 1980 -2004 period to investigate the relationship between financial liberalization and institutional factors and their effects on economic growth. We apply the difference-in-difference (DID) model and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to the data. The main finding of this research are as followers:
1.Financial liberalization has a positive influence on economic growth in developing countries but no such positive effect has been found in developed countries.
2.The growth effect of financial liberalization in developing countries seems to be enhanced after controlling for institutional quality
3.The empirical evidence from the estimates for interaction term of institutional factors and financial liberalization index shows that those developing countries with higher institutional quality will have higher growth rate after adopting a more open financial liberalization policy.
4.Financial liberalization, with additional consideration of institutional factors, seems to exert only short-run effect on economic growth.