本文以景氣循環理論為基礎並利用以狀態變化的馬可夫轉換模型之計量方法為研究架構，而其模型的優點為能夠捕捉在不同母體間的特性，也因為石油能源的重要性，故本文選擇石油價格的衝擊作為外生變數來探討其是否導致景氣循環中產生非對稱性，希望能掌握亞洲區各國家中景氣循環的非對稱性。 The last thirty years,the development of globalization led to the rapid growth of international trade,commodity prices caused by competition,so the production lines gradually moved to China,India,Philippines and other low-cost countries.This phenomenon has brought opportunities for the emerging Asia countries,thus their economies has rapidly developed.And this make Asia becoming more important in the global economy and trade.
While under the influence of globalization,more and more reasons leading business cycle occurs.However,oil is important for the economic development of countries around the world.Rapid economic growth has also led to a strong demand for oil and upheaval in oil prices,and will directly affect the changes of business cycle.
In this paper,based on the theory of the business cycle and the use of state changes to Markov switching model for the study of architecture is measured,and the model has the advantage to be able to capture the different characteristics between various countries.Because of the important of oil,this article select oil price shocks as an exogenous variable to investigate whether the resulting cyclical asymmetry is generated,hoping to master cyclical asymmetry of various countries in Asia.
