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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/93830

    題名: 石油衝擊與亞洲景氣循環之非對稱性行為
    其他題名: Oil shock and the asymmetries in the Asia business cycle
    作者: 粘心怡;Nien, Hsin-Yi
    貢獻者: 淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班
    關鍵詞: 石油衝擊;景氣循環;非對稱性;Oil Shock;Business cycle;Asymmetric Behaviour
    日期: 2013
    上傳時間: 2014-01-23 13:33:55 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 最近30年來,全球化的發展下,國際貿易快速成長,造成商品價格競爭激烈,生產線逐漸移往中國、印度、菲律賓等低成本國家,這種現象為亞洲新興國家帶來商機,其經濟因而迅速發展,使得亞洲在全球經貿上日趨重要。


    The last thirty years,the development of globalization led to the rapid growth of international trade,commodity prices caused by competition,so the production lines gradually moved to China,India,Philippines and other low-cost countries.This phenomenon has brought opportunities for the emerging Asia countries,thus their economies has rapidly developed.And this make Asia becoming more important in the global economy and trade.

    While under the influence of globalization,more and more reasons leading business cycle occurs.However,oil is important for the economic development of countries around the world.Rapid economic growth has also led to a strong demand for oil and upheaval in oil prices,and will directly affect the changes of business cycle.

    In this paper,based on the theory of the business cycle and the use of state changes to Markov switching model for the study of architecture is measured,and the model has the advantage to be able to capture the different characteristics between various countries.Because of the important of oil,this article select oil price shocks as an exogenous variable to investigate whether the resulting cyclical asymmetry is generated,hoping to master cyclical asymmetry of various countries in Asia.
    顯示於類別:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文


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