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    Title: 石油衝擊與亞洲景氣循環之非對稱性行為
    Other Titles: Oil shock and the asymmetries in the Asia business cycle
    Authors: 粘心怡;Nien, Hsin-Yi
    Contributors: 淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班
    劉德芝
    Keywords: 石油衝擊;景氣循環;非對稱性;Oil Shock;Business cycle;Asymmetric Behaviour
    Date: 2013
    Issue Date: 2014-01-23 13:33:55 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 最近30年來,全球化的發展下,國際貿易快速成長,造成商品價格競爭激烈,生產線逐漸移往中國、印度、菲律賓等低成本國家,這種現象為亞洲新興國家帶來商機,其經濟因而迅速發展,使得亞洲在全球經貿上日趨重要。

    而在全球化發展的影響下,導致景氣循環發生的原因越來越多,然而,石油能源對於全球各國經濟的發展存在著強大的重要性,經濟迅速的成長也帶動了石油能源的強烈需求更導致石油價格的劇烈動盪,並且將直接影響景氣循環的變動。

    本文以景氣循環理論為基礎並利用以狀態變化的馬可夫轉換模型之計量方法為研究架構,而其模型的優點為能夠捕捉在不同母體間的特性,也因為石油能源的重要性,故本文選擇石油價格的衝擊作為外生變數來探討其是否導致景氣循環中產生非對稱性,希望能掌握亞洲區各國家中景氣循環的非對稱性。
    The last thirty years,the development of globalization led to the rapid growth of international trade,commodity prices caused by competition,so the production lines gradually moved to China,India,Philippines and other low-cost countries.This phenomenon has brought opportunities for the emerging Asia countries,thus their economies has rapidly developed.And this make Asia becoming more important in the global economy and trade.

    While under the influence of globalization,more and more reasons leading business cycle occurs.However,oil is important for the economic development of countries around the world.Rapid economic growth has also led to a strong demand for oil and upheaval in oil prices,and will directly affect the changes of business cycle.

    In this paper,based on the theory of the business cycle and the use of state changes to Markov switching model for the study of architecture is measured,and the model has the advantage to be able to capture the different characteristics between various countries.Because of the important of oil,this article select oil price shocks as an exogenous variable to investigate whether the resulting cyclical asymmetry is generated,hoping to master cyclical asymmetry of various countries in Asia.
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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