歐洲景氣循環 : 以失業率之觀點

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 產業經濟學系暨研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/93826

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题名:	歐洲景氣循環 : 以失業率之觀點
其它题名:	European business cycle : a perspective in unemployment rate
作者:	彭巧婷;Peng, Ciao-Ting
贡献者:	淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班劉德芝
关键词:	馬可夫轉換模型;歐元區景氣循環;同步性;Markov switching models;Eurozone business cycle;synchronization
日期:	2013
上传时间:	2014-01-23 13:33:43 (UTC+8)
摘要:	歷經全球金融風暴後，造成近年歐元區各國失業率攀升等問題，使失業率相關議題愈受重視，且相較於其他金融指標，失業率資料較可刻劃出勞動市場之特性。本研究想了解區內十一個成員國是否真的因貨幣同盟策略而景氣波動趨於一致性，以達到區域整合之效與單一貨幣有利環境之形成。相較於現今其他類似之經濟區域，歐元區之建立與運行替區域性經濟活動體現良好的參考典範，希冀能為亞洲國家提供可借鏡之路徑與仿效模式。本研究以1998年歐盟執委會最初公布之十一國為研究對象進行分析，觀察歐元單一貨幣結盟後是否影響歐洲區域整合效果。依經常帳收支占GDP比例之年平均區分為貿易順差國與貿易逆差國兩組，分別代表歐元區核心經濟體(core)與邊緣經濟體(periphery)。結果發現，因1993年1月至2001年12月為歐元單一貨幣整合之過渡轉換時期，歐元區核心國與邊緣國並無同步性之情況發生。僅於歐元實體貨幣發行後期即2002年1月至2012年6月期間，歐元區核心經濟體國家-奧地利、法國、比利時、芬蘭、德國、盧森堡與荷蘭等七國之經濟波動性與OECD歐洲國家景氣循環呈現正向同步性。總言之，核心成員國與邊緣成員國的體質、結構與發展模式相差甚劇，導致貨幣區內無法表現出景氣循環同步性之行為，將影響貨幣聯盟發展。 After the global financial turmoil, the euro-zone countries resulting in rising unemployment and other issues in recent years, issues related to the unemployment rate more attention. And comparison to other financial indicators, the unemployment rate can be described by the characteristics of the labor market. This study would like to know whether the euro area member states tend to cyclical fluctuations in consistency because monetary union strategy to achieve the effect of regional integration and an enabling environment for the formation of the single currency. In 1998 the European Commission published the initial 11 countries were analyzed for the study, observed after the league euro will affect the effect of regional integration in Europe. Based on the current account balance to GDP ratio of the average annual divided into two groups with surplus countries and deficit countries, which represent the core euro area economies and the peripheral economies. The results showed that, as from January 1993 to December 2001 the integration of the transition to the euro conversion period, euro area core countries are not synchronized with the periphery countries . After the release of euro during January 2002 to June 2012 period, the euro area core countries - Austria, France, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg and Netherlands, the economic volatility in OECD countries showing positive cyclical synchronization . in conclusion, the core countries and the periphery countries constitution, structure and mode of development there are differences, preventing the performance of the business cycle synchronization, will affect the development of the monetary union.
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