本研究選取臺灣上市櫃8家太陽光電廠商自2010年第1季至2011年第4季之資料，總計64個觀察值，與16家發光二極體廠商自2007年第1季至2011年第4季之資料，總計320個觀察值，利用KMV模型逐季計算每間公司預期違約機率，亦藉由縱橫資料估計方法(Panel Data)探討從短期償債能力、經營效率與獲利能力等財務報表指標與預期違約機率之關聯性，做為太陽光電與發光二極體廠商改善信用風險之參考。實證結果顯示，太陽光電產業會受到國際金融事件衝擊，且發現高額負債並非導致信用風險升高之原因，經營效率與獲利能力才是影響信用風險大小的主因，因此建議太陽光電廠商改善經營績效以降低違約風險，投資人亦得從基本分析提供做為信用風險決策參考依據；發光二極體產業會受到國際金融事件衝擊，且發現經營效率並非導致信用風險升高之原因，高額負債與獲利能力才是影響信用風險大小的主因，因此建議發光二極體廠商改善負債與獲利能力以降低違約風險，投資人亦得從基本分析提供做為信用風險決策參考依據。 This paper employs the KMV (Kealhofer-McQuown-Vasicek) model to consider with the eight PV (Photovoltaic) related companies from first season of 2010 to fourth season of 2011. The raw data includes a total number of 64 observations,and with the sixteen LED (Light Emitting Diode) related companies from first season of 2007 to fourth season of 2011. The raw data includes a total number of 320 observations. It’s use to calculate the EDF (Expected Default Frequency) with each company, and relatedness of financial variable target EDF by the panel data either, and discusses influence factor the anticipated violation probability size. The empirical results confirm that is take the decision reference for the investor that the PV and LED can affected under attack by the international finance event and a part norms of financial statement can effect the EDF.
