內需不振 : 中國城鄉居民所得水準與邊際消費傾向之實證分析2001-2010

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题名:	內需不振 : 中國城鄉居民所得水準與邊際消費傾向之實證分析2001-2010
其它题名:	Shrinking of domestic demands : an empirical study on the MPC of income groups of urban and rural residents in China 2001-2010
作者:	柯峻豪;Ke, Chun-Hao
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班郭建中;Guo, Jiann-Jong
关键词:	中國內需;所得;邊際消費傾向;絕對所得假說;簡單凱因斯模型;domestic demands in China;incomes;the marginal propensity to consume;Absolute Income Hypothesis;Simple Keynesian Model
日期:	2013
上传时间:	2014-01-23 13:19:32 (UTC+8)
摘要:	中國大陸自改革開放1978年以來，憑藉著豐富的自然資源與低廉的勞動成本，成為各國商品生產之地，實符「世界工廠」之名。2000年中國人民平均薪資僅9,333元人民幣，但至2011年已成長近4.5倍之多，來到41,799元人民幣。雖然各國企業選擇投資中國看重的莫過於中國內需市場的龐大，但內部消費對經濟增長的貢獻率仍是偏低。改革開放以來，中國仍舊是個以出口為導向的國家，其內需消費市場顯然不如預期。　　本論文主要是研究中國城鄉居民所得水準與邊際消費傾向議題，找出全國人均城市、鄉村居民間所得水準與消費傾向以及各個因素影響之關聯性，利用簡單凱因斯模型與絕對所得假說作為主要迴歸研究方法。利用變異數分析與迴歸係數分析說明中國城鄉居民邊際效費傾向2001-2010年以來之變化。　　本研究發現城鎮居民消費傾向會受到政府財政政策積極性所影響且消費傾向呈現下滑趨勢，所得較低階層生活獲得改善。中國政府對於全國居民政策有「重城輕農」之傾向，造成農村居民消費傾向趨於保守，對於未來不確定性增強。 By the abundance natural resources and low labor costs, China became the world factory since the reform and open in year 1978, has been producing the commodity of every country. In 2000, the China average salary is only 9,333 RMB, but by 2011 had grown nearly 4.5 times as much, came to 41,799 RMB. While enterprises of the world choose to invest in China, they valued the huge Chinese domestic market, but the internal consumption to economic growth in the contribution rate is still low. Since reform and opening, China is still an export-oriented country, the domestic consumer market is clearly not as good as expected. This thesis is to study the MPC of different income groups of urban and rural residents in China, to identify the relationship between the incomes and MPC or other various factors. Using Simple Keynesian Model with Absolute Income Hypothesis as the main research methods. The use of ANOVA and regression coefficient analysis shows that Chinese urban and rural residents MPC2001-2010 years of change. The study found that urban residents'' MPC will be influenced by the positive fiscal policy and MPC has downward trend. The low income class urban resident life has improved. Furthermore, Chinese government to the fiscal policy was unbalance between urban and rural, resulting in consumption of rural residents tend to be conservative, the uncertainty of the future life enhancement.
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