日本EPA對貿易流量的影響(2000年至2011年) : 引力模型之驗證

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Title:	日本EPA對貿易流量的影響(2000年至2011年) : 引力模型之驗證
Other Titles:	Effects of Japanese EPA on trade flows, 2000-2011 : the empirical evidence in gravity analysis
Authors:	彭煒育;Peng, Wei-Yu
Contributors:	淡江大學亞洲研究所碩士班任耀庭;Jen, Eau-Tin
Keywords:	區域經濟整合;自由貿易協定;貿易創造效果;引力模型;貿易流量;free trade agreement;Economic Partnership Agreement;Trade Creation Effect;gravity model;Trade Flows;経済連携協定;貿易創造効果;重力モデル;貿易額
Date:	2013
Issue Date:	2014-01-23 13:10:52 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	全球化的區域經濟整合已成為現階段國際經濟發展的潮流，各國紛紛積極推動經濟整合，締約國間可以削減貿易間關稅及非關稅貿易障礙，使貿易、投資更加自由化，進而影響國際貿易流量、資源重分配、國際分工型態等。1990年代末日本改變對外經濟政策，積極推動雙邊經濟夥伴協定（EPA/FTA）及推動區域貿易協定（RTA）。為瞭解區域經濟整合對於貿易流量的影響，鑒於引力模型可有效的分析雙邊的貿易流量，本文針對該模型之相關文獻及實證歸納與整理，並利用引力模型探討2000年後FTA/EPA對日本經濟貿易的影響，以實際貿易流量進行數據的分析與討論。本實證研究發現EPA對日本全體貿易流量有正面影響，因此區域經濟整合具有明顯的貿易創造效果。而影響二國間貿易流量的主要因素分別為兩國的經濟規模、地理距離以及EPA之締結，本研究結果與過去學者研究相呼應，驗證出「引力模型」適用於分析雙邊貿易流量之影響因素，且說明變數具強力的解釋力。 The globalization of regional economy integration has become a trend in the development of international economic these days, and it can be achieved by the Free Trade Agreements with other countries. This integration allows members of the region to virtually eliminate all tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, and will affect international trade flows, the allocation of international resources and change the pattern of the international industrial division. As new economic policy and strategy, Japan began to promote Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) since 1990s. This paper determines the effect of regional economic integration on trade flows. We review the relevant literature on the gravity model, a model that can effectively analyze trade flows between two countries, and also the empirical analysis of the effects of Japanese EPA on trade flows, and we use the Gravity Model to carry on the empirical study. The results of the analysis revealed the Japanese EPA has positive effect on bilateral trade flows, which means regional economic integration clearly can bring trade creation. This model also analyzes the main factors affecting trade flows. We find that the main factors influencing trade flows between two countries are the GDP, distance and EPAs.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Asian Studies] Thesis

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