The relation between higher order moments of 10-minute mean wind speeds and the probability distribution of annual maximum wind speeds have been examined by utilizing observed wind data in Japan. It is found that the four moment parameters determine the tail characteristics of extreme value distributions and these moment parameters vary yearly and regionally. The variations of skewness and kurtosis play significant roles in particular. When the mean and the standard deviation of four moments of parent distribution are appropriately estimated, the simulation of annual maximum wind speeds provides a good correspondence to the distribution of observed annual maximum wind speeds. The possibility of good estimation of annual maximum wind speeds may be expected from a short period of data, such as 5 years when the variations of four moments are properly estimated as a representative one for long-term statistics.
關聯:
International Journal of Engineering Under Uncertainty: Hazards, Assessment, and Mitigation 1(3-4), pp.123-129
