The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether Washington has increased the risk of entrapment and Taipei has increased the risk of abandonment since the improvement of cross-Strait relations in 2008 . The major intemational relations theory applied in this article is the theory of security dilemma in alliance politics. In the U.S.-Taiwan informal alliance, Washington was reluctant to be entrapped in the cross-Strait conflict over the issue of Taiwan's independence under the leadership of Chen Shui-bian so that it reached an anti-independence consensus with Beijing. There is no such issue as Taiwan's independence under the leadership of Ma Ying-jeou. When the cross-Strait negotiations move from economic and cultural issues to politically sensitive issues; however, Taipei may hope that Washington could play a role of guarantor or supervisor. The United States may believe that playing such a role will increase the risk of entrapment. Whether Washington is willing to do so remains to be seen in the future, but Taipei 's risk of abandonment is more likely to occur when the cross-Strait relationship further deepens and expands. Certainly, Taipei has more risk of abandonment than does Washington after the United States is taking a conciliating policy toward China. While most believe that Taiwan has more risk of abandonment, still some others think that the rising of China will eventually lead to Beijing's intimidation and Taipei's submission if the cross-Strait relations are out of control. However, there are many resources for Taiwan to resist China's coercion or threat, including a viable democratic system, an intemationaIly competitive economy, strong multinational corporations, a modest military deterrent, and a solid relationship with the United States, much Iess the U.S.-back-to-Asia strategy and the U.S.-led new Asian-Pacific political and economic system which is now taking shape. The main theme of this paper is that Washington has increased the risk of entrapment and Taipei has increased the risk of abandonment since the improvement of cross-S甘ait relations in 2008; therefore, they should work toge也er to reduce the risk of entrapment and abandonment in the belief that China is aggressive or expansionist m nature.
Conference on major trends in comtemporary word affairs=「當前世界的發展趨勢」學術研討會, 15p.