淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/90448
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    題名: Prediction Models for Transverse Cracking of Jointed Concrete Pavements: Development with Long-Term Pavement Performance Database
    作者: Ker, Hsiang-Wei;Lee, Ying-Haur;Lin, Chia-Huei
    貢獻者: 淡江大學土木工程學系
    日期: 2008
    上傳時間: 2013-06-24 13:18:24 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Washington: U.S. National Research Council * Transportation Research Board
    摘要: The main objective of this study was to develop improved prediction models for transverse cracking of jointed concrete pavements with the Long-Term Pavement Performance database. The retrieval, preparation, and cleaning of the database were carefully handled with a systematic and automatic approach. The prediction accuracy of the existing prediction models implemented in the recommended Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide (NCHRP Project 1-37A) was found to be inadequate. Exploratory data analysis indicated that the normality assumption with random errors and constant variance by using conventional regression techniques might not be appropriate for this study. Therefore, several modern regression techniques, including the generalized linear model and the generalized additive model, along with the assumption of Poisson distribution, were adopted for the modeling process. The resulting mechanistic–empirical model included several variables—such as pavement age, yearly equivalent single-axle loads (ESALs), accumulated ESALs, annual precipitation, freeze–thaw cycle, annual temperature range, stress ratio, and percent steel—for the prediction of transverse cracking. The goodness of fit was further examined through significant testing and various sensitivity analyses of pertinent explanatory parameters. The tentatively proposed predictive models appeared to agree reasonably with the pavement performance data, although their further enhancements are possible and recommended.
    關聯: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2068, pp.20-31
    DOI: 10.3141/2068-03
    顯示於類別:[土木工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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