Regional Business Cycle Phases in Taiwan

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Title:	Regional Business Cycle Phases in Taiwan
Authors:	Liu, De-Chih
Contributors:	淡江大學產業經濟學系
Keywords:	Regional business cycles;employment growth;turning point
Date:	2011-12
Issue Date:	2013-05-29 13:54:20 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Richmond: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
Abstract:	This paper uses both univariate and multivariate Markov-switching models to explore the characteristics of the regional business cycle phases in Taiwan. In particular, this paper provides novel evidence regarding the “turning-point identification” puzzle in Taiwan that to date has not been fully resolved. We find that the regime-switching behaviour of the common regional business cycle is consistent (or even precedes recession) with the business cycle expansion and contraction indicators used by the Council for Economic Planning and Development. This finding suggests that the common regional business cycle identifies the turning point after the 1990s. This finding also suggests that the employment growth index would be a great indicator for monitoring the business cycle in Taiwan.
Relation:	South African Journal of Economics 79(4), pp.452–469
DOI:	10.1111/j.1813-6982.2011.01295.x
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Industrial Economics] Journal Article

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