換了位置就換了腦袋？探討台灣總統大選的選舉輸家

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Title:	換了位置就換了腦袋？探討台灣總統大選的選舉輸家
Other Titles:	Does a Change of Position Mean a Change of Mind？Exploring Political Attitude of Losers in Taiwanese Presidental Elections
Authors:	林聰吉
Contributors:	淡江大學公共行政學系
Keywords:	輸家同意;舉輸家;選舉公平性;民主支持;民主滿意;民主鞏固;多數統治;Loser's consent;Election losers;Election fairness;Support for democracy;Satisfaction with democracy;Democratic consolidation;Majority rule
Date:	2013-03-01
Issue Date:	2013-05-14 19:15:40 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	臺北市：臺灣民主基金會
Abstract:	在現有研究民主政治的廣泛文獻中，輸家同意理論認為，相對於其他選民，選舉輸家普遍會對選舉公平性有所質疑，同時也不可避免地會對選後由敵對政黨所主導的政局，持續抱持負面的態度。論者也因而指出，輸家在選後至下次大選舉行前的不服輸、不滿，甚至行為的不服從，將會對一國民主的穩定有關鍵性的影響。本文聚焦於選舉輸家的政治態度，嘗試以台灣為案例，以驗證上述理論。具體研究問題有二：第一、無論敗選的政黨為何，輸家對選舉公平性的質疑，是否已是台灣政治的普遍現象？第二、選舉輸家對於民主政治的態度（包括民主支持、民主滿意）會呈現何種趨勢？藉由這些態度的長期走向，如何進一步解讀我國民主政治的發展？有別於以往文獻的研究方法，本文採用跨年的長期性縱斷面資料，以2000-2012年經歷過兩次政黨輪替的總統選舉為研究素材。此外，除了選舉輸家與贏家，同時又納入未投票者為分析對象。 Among large literature of democratic theories, theorists of loser’s consent argue that election losers tend to evaluate the election as an unfair game and hold negative attitudes toward future politics. Therefore, political attitudes and actions of losers would be key factors deciding stability of democracy. Focusing on the case of Taiwan, this study attempts to explore two questions: (1) whether losers treat the election as a unfair game is the common case for either KMT or DPP supporters? (2) what are losers’ attitudes toward democracy? Different from the previous literature, this study examines several surveys which collected in 2000-2012 presidential elections. In addition to losers and winners, absent voters are included in the analysis. Findings of this work indicate that “different position, different mindset” thesis could not be completely applied to the case of Taiwan. First, as the literature expect, losers always view the election as a unfair game. On the contrary, in eyes of winners, election is fair. Second, loser/winner distinction does not show significant effect on support for democracy. Instead, party support is proved to be an influential factor. The DPP supporters are inclined to support democracy in each survey. The author asserts that the above result might be owing to Taiwan’s political tradition. Third, losers do not exert effect on satisfaction with democracy. However, winner factor is statistically significant in most surveys.
Relation:	臺灣民主季刊=Taiwan Democracy Quarterly 10(1)，頁1-34
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Public Administration] Journal Article

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