English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 50124/85142 (59%)
造訪人次 : 7913180      線上人數 : 52
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧:
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號",以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋,建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位,可獲得較完整資料
  • 進階搜尋
    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/88153


    題名: 改變點趨勢檢定於流域降雨特性之研究
    其他題名: A study on the trend test for the characteristics change point of a basin rainfall
    作者: 蔡雅涵;Tasi, Ya-han
    貢獻者: 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系碩士班
    虞國興;蘇騰鋐;Yu, Gwo-hsing;Su, Teng-hung
    關鍵詞: 氣候變遷;趨勢檢定;無因次方法;Climate Change;trend test;dimensionless method
    日期: 2012
    上傳時間: 2013-04-13 12:03:12 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 近年來,台灣降雨型態發生改變,造成豐枯期降雨越來越不均勻,更有極端降雨強度增加,年不降雨日數增加之現象,未來對台灣水資源的衝擊,勢必是水資源規劃所需面對的問題,因此本研究提出趨勢檢定方法,分析長期水文時間序列,以探討流域降雨改變點特性。
    本研究參考CD檢定法與MWP檢定法,提出無因次均一性(DMS)檢定方法,研究中利用理論數值試驗進行資料繁衍,進行不同資料改變點特性之探討,以比較各檢定法之檢定力,並提出不同資料長度、試驗次數、平均值及標準偏差下,無因次均一性(DMS)檢定法之檢定力推求方法。
    本研究透過數值試驗顯示,改變點之判定以DMS檢定法為較佳之結果,亦提出DMS(e0~e3)檢定法之Rx、Rs與檢定力P ̂圖及其理論公式。另外,以烏溪流域為研究對象,利用DMS檢定法分析流域降雨特性,得知烏溪流域內之年降雨量改變點變化大約發生於1950~1960年之間,年不降雨日數改變點變化大約發生於1960~1970年之間,而年最大一日降雨量改變之時間較不一致。建議未來進行烏溪流域暴雨及乾旱頻率分析時,可利用本研究之分析結果,作為水文分析資料使用之參考。
    In recent years, the rainfall patterns has been changed in Taiwan, leads to flood-dry period rainfall more and more uneven, it also have the phenomenon that the extreme rainfall intensity and annual non-rainy days increases. In the future, the impact of the water resources in Taiwan is bound to water resources planning need to resolved. This study propose is establish a trend test method in order to investigate long-term time series hydrological data and the characteristics change point of a basin rainfall.
    This study adopts the CD and MWP test, and propose Dimensionless homogeneity test (DMS). Use the numerical experiments to generational data and confer the characteristics of different change point to compare the power of the test of the three methods. We also propose DMS test’s power of the test in the case of different data length, number of experiments, mean and standard deviation.
    The result shows that the DMS method can well use to determine the change point, and offer the Rx Rs power chart and formula of the DMS(e0~e3) method. In addition, We use the DMS method analyze the characteristics change points of Wu Kai basin. The study found that the annual rainfall series have similar change points approximately from 1950 to 1960, non-rainy days from 1960 to 1970 and maximum daily rainfall depth have different change points. The Wu Kai basin rainstorm is studied and the results can be the reference of a hydrological analysis .
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 學位論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 大小格式瀏覽次數
    index.html0KbHTML199檢視/開啟

    在機構典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

    TAIR相關文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回饋