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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/88153

    Title: 改變點趨勢檢定於流域降雨特性之研究
    Other Titles: A study on the trend test for the characteristics change point of a basin rainfall
    Authors: 蔡雅涵;Tasi, Ya-han
    Contributors: 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系碩士班
    虞國興;蘇騰鋐;Yu, Gwo-hsing;Su, Teng-hung
    Keywords: 氣候變遷;趨勢檢定;無因次方法;Climate Change;trend test;dimensionless method
    Date: 2012
    Issue Date: 2013-04-13 12:03:12 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 近年來,台灣降雨型態發生改變,造成豐枯期降雨越來越不均勻,更有極端降雨強度增加,年不降雨日數增加之現象,未來對台灣水資源的衝擊,勢必是水資源規劃所需面對的問題,因此本研究提出趨勢檢定方法,分析長期水文時間序列,以探討流域降雨改變點特性。
    本研究透過數值試驗顯示,改變點之判定以DMS檢定法為較佳之結果,亦提出DMS(e0~e3)檢定法之Rx、Rs與檢定力P ̂圖及其理論公式。另外,以烏溪流域為研究對象,利用DMS檢定法分析流域降雨特性,得知烏溪流域內之年降雨量改變點變化大約發生於1950~1960年之間,年不降雨日數改變點變化大約發生於1960~1970年之間,而年最大一日降雨量改變之時間較不一致。建議未來進行烏溪流域暴雨及乾旱頻率分析時,可利用本研究之分析結果,作為水文分析資料使用之參考。
    In recent years, the rainfall patterns has been changed in Taiwan, leads to flood-dry period rainfall more and more uneven, it also have the phenomenon that the extreme rainfall intensity and annual non-rainy days increases. In the future, the impact of the water resources in Taiwan is bound to water resources planning need to resolved. This study propose is establish a trend test method in order to investigate long-term time series hydrological data and the characteristics change point of a basin rainfall.
    This study adopts the CD and MWP test, and propose Dimensionless homogeneity test (DMS). Use the numerical experiments to generational data and confer the characteristics of different change point to compare the power of the test of the three methods. We also propose DMS test’s power of the test in the case of different data length, number of experiments, mean and standard deviation.
    The result shows that the DMS method can well use to determine the change point, and offer the Rx Rs power chart and formula of the DMS(e0~e3) method. In addition, We use the DMS method analyze the characteristics change points of Wu Kai basin. The study found that the annual rainfall series have similar change points approximately from 1950 to 1960, non-rainy days from 1960 to 1970 and maximum daily rainfall depth have different change points. The Wu Kai basin rainstorm is studied and the results can be the reference of a hydrological analysis .
    Appears in Collections:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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