降雨強度-延時-頻率之尺度特性研究及其於Horner公式修正之應用

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Title:	降雨強度-延時-頻率之尺度特性研究及其於Horner公式修正之應用
Other Titles:	Study on the scaling characteristics of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency and its application to Horner equation modification
Authors:	湯雅芳;Tang, Ya-Fang
Contributors:	淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系碩士班虞國興;Yu, Gwo-Hsing
Keywords:	動差尺度模式;尺度特徵;降雨強度-延時-頻率曲線;Moment scaling model;Scale characteristics;Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-04-13 12:03:09 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究之目的乃嘗試以動差尺度模式方法為基礎，進行不同延時降雨強度之尺度特性研究，並利用不同延時降雨尺度之特徵分析結果進一步發展降雨強度－延時－頻率曲線(IDF curve)之參數最佳擬合方法。本研究選擇北部淡水河流域、中部濁水溪流域、南部高屏溪流域等三個流域作為研究區域，並以流域內之雨量站其歷年各種延時之年最大降雨資料為分析對象。研究中，以60、90、120、180、360、720分鐘等七種延時進行長、短延時尺度分界點之判定；並分別利用「未納入尺度特徵」、「納入短延時尺度特徵」及「納入長延時尺度特徵」等三種Horner公式參數擬合方法進行研析，以建立結合降雨長、短延時尺度特徵之IDF曲線關係。由研究結果顯示，台灣地區確實存在兩種明顯長短延時尺度特性，整體而言分界點延時普遍介於60分鐘至90分鐘之間。當各重現期距下長、短延時之降雨強度尺度特性差異愈顯著時，則方法二及方法三會得到較佳之擬合結果。本研究已成功地發展一套結合台灣地區降雨強度尺度特性與IDF曲線參數擬合之方法，希冀可進一步作為未來建立都會區短延時及山區長延時之不同降雨尺度特徵IDF曲線之參考，以因應台灣地區未來面對長、短延時降雨強度特性差異加劇下之水文設計需求。 This study utilizes moment scale mode in obtaining the characteristic scales in rainfall intensity for different rainfall durations. Based on the results, a parameter estimation method for fitting rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curve (IDF curve) to empirical data was developed. The chosen study areas include the Danshui River basin located in northern Taiwan, the Zhuoshui River Basin located in central Taiwan, and the Gaobing River Basin located in southern Taiwan. This study experimented with seven ways of dividing short and long rainfall events, including setting the division point at 60 mins, 90 mins, 120 mins, 360 mins, and 720 mins. For the fitting of IDF curve to the empirical data, this study employed the three methods in parameter estimations for Horner equation, suchas the scale characteristics not considered, short duration and long duration scale characteristics are adopted respectively. The research results indicate that rainfall events in Taiwan can be separated into two distinctive categories, long duration rainfalls and short duration rainfalls. The dividing rainfall durations falls between 60 to 90 mins. When the difference in characteristic rainfall intensities between long and short duration events become more pronounced, adopted short duration and long duration scale characteristics produce the best fitting IDF to empirical data. This research is successful in establishing a method for parameter fitting of IDF curve to characteristic rainfall intensities in Taiwan. This method can be applied to obtain characteristic IDF curves for short-term rainfall event in urban regions, and for long-term rainfall event in mountain region. In the future, the long duration and short duration rainfalls are expected to exhibit more pronounced differences in characteristic intensities, future flood control designs would need to be based on accurate IDFs.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering] Thesis

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