近年來，國人的休閒時間逐漸增加，民眾對於旅遊品質的要求，有逐漸提升之現象，隨著交通便利性與旅遊景點之行銷，每當連續假期期間，台灣的著名風景區，均擠滿從事遊憩活動的遊客，造成嚴重交通壅塞及觀光遊憩品質等的下降，急需總量管制以維護賞景之品質。 基於維護觀光區遊憩品質，從遊客心理擁擠知覺層面探討風景區之社會心理承載量，並強調加入分群與誤判成本的賞景心理概念，本研究首次引入判別分析建立風景區總量管制之門檻值。並以因子分析探究影響總量管制策略之重要因素，最後再以路徑分析探討景區內各重要景點與全區之遊憩品質之關聯特性。 經過深入討論，得到下列幾項重要結論： 1.資料情境呈現方式以動態攝影較接近現場調查結果，以相片呈現方式推估之門檻值差異大；且景區管理單位若實施專人分流引導管理，可以提高管制之門檻值。 2.若能加入行前預期心理與誤判成本資訊，景區管制門檻值之推估結果較無資訊為高。 3.風景區之熱點門檻管理，影響風景區整體評價。 4.野栁地質公園之總量管制以分流引導下之1776人/小時為門檻值，各景區之每小時承載門檻值分別為799、695及283人，與野栁風景管理當局規劃相符。 In recent years, the volume of recreation activity rapidly increased. The quality of travel and entertainment hence gets more attentions. Due to the scenic marketing and promotion plan, overwhelming tourists rush into target area, which deteriorates the service quality, especially on long vocation. The social carrying capacity control thus emerges to be an important issue to solve the problem. Based on the perception of crowding, this study first ever introduces discriminates analysis to discuss the social carrying capacity of scenic areas, owing to this method containing extra and exclusive information of pre-tour experience and misjudgment penalty cost. Furthermore, the influence factors and its cause-effect influences with social carrying capacity control management strategies are extensive discussed with the factor analysis and path analysis. After discussions in details, some strong conclusions can be drewed as follows. 1.The video questionnaire can give reliable and effective results in contrast to the photo with huge fluctuation. If taking the diverse and guided tourist plan, scenic authority can improve and increase its social carrying capacity in any scenic spots. 2.With extra information of pre-tour experience and misjudgment penalty cost, the estimated social carrying capacity gives higher value, which closes to the result of survey at spot practical. 3.The hot spot control management in scenic area is associated with quality evaluation of the total scenic area. 4.The social carrying capacity with diverse and guided tourist plan yields to the total area with 1776, the first scenic spot with 799, the second scenic spot with 695, and last spot with 283, which approximate to the number of live spot control for Yeh-Liu authority.