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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/87666

    Title: 風景區交通壅塞狀況動態預警研析 : 以日月潭國家風景區為例
    Other Titles: Dynamic traffic jam forecasting of scenic area : a case study of Sun Moon Lake
    Authors: 郭思漢;Kuo, Tzu-Han
    Contributors: 淡江大學運輸管理學系碩士班
    劉士仙;Liu, Shi-Hsien
    Keywords: 智慧型運輸系統;壅塞預警;卡門濾波;加權趨勢平滑;ITS;warning call;Kalman Filter;moving average method
    Date: 2012
    Issue Date: 2013-04-13 11:31:50 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 近年來,知名之觀光遊憩區於周休及連續假期時常湧入大量人潮造成壅塞;政府為了提升景區交通服務水準,因此擬導入先進的智慧型運輸系統(Intelligent Transportation System, ITS) 科技,使景區之交通壅塞能事前預警,防範於未然。本研究以日月潭國家風景區為例,利用現有車輛偵測器資訊提前預測景點壅塞狀況,並嘗試比較路網中不同之路段(節線)或景點(節點)資訊於景區壅塞預測之準確與可靠度績效,做為未來評估與選擇交通管制之參考。
    Due to the overwhelming tourists, congestion in some scenic area became a dead lock recently, especially in long vocation. To improve the quality of well-known scenic spot, authority introduces some advanced technologies of Intelligent Transport System (ITS) into this area, and hope that it could response the incident in advance before it gets worse. Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area is on the top list of well-known spots cross the Taiwan Strait to be the first choice of this study area. With density layout vehicle detector (VD) data, we compare with types of link and node information in order to provide the effective performance index for traffic control in the near future.
    This study applies weighted average method and extended Kalman Filter for link and node performance assessments separately. Furthermore, to explore the spatial relationships of traffic congestion of upstream and downstream, STARIMA is also included based on a full data by a traffic simulation software, VISSIM.
    After discussion in details, the congestion of parking lot near major scenic spot is best for traffic control than those from links in surrounded area. Based on the standard threshold of congestion index, the warning call could make one hour in advance with accuracy of 80%.
    Appears in Collections:[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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