通過VECM和因果分析等等實證，本論文也發現了金磚五國間，確實存在著共整合關係，而部分成員國間的匯率，也有著顯著的相互影響關係。 Emerging market recently attracts great attentions for foreign direct invest. Among investments in emerging markets, BRICS are probably one of the brightest stars and have played an important role in the global financial developments. According to Goldman Sachs, BRIC would grow rapidly soon overtake status of leading economic such G7 in 2039. This report affects world attention of multinational corporations to take advantage of this enormous potential markets in the BRIC. Members of BRIC countries are Brazil, Russian, India and China. South Africa recently joined BRIC to complete this international organization as BRICS.
As global integration among the BRICS countries, this study examines correlation of currencies between BRICS countries. According previous studies, we conclude that correlation in currency is mainly due to three aspects: economical, political and regional. Economical aspect suggests that two countries’ currencies would have similar tendency if they share similarity in economical background. Political aspect relates to monetary policy of each country. Regional aspect concludes rivalry or cooperation in trade that leads one’s currency tendency.
Although BRICS countries are different in regions, we expect to find out a specific relationship existed within BRICS’ currencies based on its similar pattern in economic growth and monetary policy. Overall, our study obverses that 1) BRICS countries has a co-movement in currency tendency, 2) China’s currency RMB is a leading and stable currencies among BRICS and 3) INR, ZAR and BRL are all effected in different degrees by others. Besides, a surprised finding is that 2008’s financial crisis does not impact BRICS since no break point existed in Stability Test. This can be reasoned by China’s strict control of RMB.