影響臺灣民生財經變數因素之探討

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Title:	影響臺灣民生財經變數因素之探討
Other Titles:	Investigating the factors affecting the variables related to the livelihood in Taiwan
Authors:	劉秀娟;Liu, Hsiu-Chuan
Contributors:	淡江大學管理科學學系碩士班倪衍森;Ni, Yen-Sen
Keywords:	通貨膨脹率;失業率;痛苦指數;所得分配;Inflation;Unemployment Rate;misery index;Income distribution
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-04-13 11:18:26 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	歷經2008年金融海嘯後各國政府紛紛祭出財政與貨幣政策，企圖在一片不景氣下力挽狂瀾，然而2009年11月的景氣對策燈號已由綠燈轉為黃紅燈，整體來說景氣有逐漸回溫的現象，但事實上人民卻無法感受到經濟復甦所帶來的利多而是物價不斷飆漲以及失業危機，在此背景下本研究欲探討民生財經變數對通貨膨脹率、失業率、痛苦指數與所得分配之影響。經由本研究之實證結果，有以下之重要發現：其一當製造業景氣好時，消費者物價指數上升、各行業平均薪資提高以及貧富差距拉大；當製造業景氣差時，則失業率上升，因此可看出台灣的製造業與經濟命脈之間的影響性。其二當食物價格上漲將壓縮其他消費時，非食品生產者便面臨存貨危機進而減少投資與刪減人力資源，因此將使得原本較低收入的家庭生活更加困苦。其三當景氣不好與失業率上升時，有人為了生活開銷而捉衣見肘，但也有大舉入市的投資者使得股價上漲，形成強烈對比，富者擁有較多資源與資金相對於貧者，因此更使得貧者越貧，富者越富。 After financial tsunami in 2008, governments worldwide announced various fiscal and monetary policies, attempting to improve situation. Although Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) in September, 2009 had turned into yellow-red, people didn’t feel the economic recovery. Instead, people encounter unemployment and price increase. The study attempts to explore and discuss how variables related to people’s living affects inflation, unemployment rate, misery index and income distribution. The results of the study are as follows. First, when the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is good, Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases along with the rise of average income in every professions as well as the bigger gap between the poor and the rich. However, when the Purchasing Manager Index is bad, the unemployment rate decreases. The relation of manufacturing industry in Taiwan and the economic lifeline of the country is thus shown. Second, when the higher expense of food affect other consume, non-food producers will face stock crisis and thus cut down on invest and man power. The poor become poorer. Third, when the economic recession and the employment rate increases, some people become poorer while some people invest to raise stock price. The strong comparison shows that rich, who own more resources and money, become richer, while the poor become poorer.
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Management Sciences] Thesis

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