| Abstract: | 台灣地處亞熱帶，又位於大陸板塊交界處，所以颱風、洪水、地震等天然災害發生次數頻繁，加上經濟之發展，人口密度的增加，資產的快速集中與累積，使各種天然災害所造成的經濟損失大幅提高且集中。例如:921大地震、88水災莫拉克風災等..同樣也都造成民眾與企業生命財產莫大損失。
費率自由化第三階段後產險公司如何釐訂天災保險商品費率的確是值得注意關心的議題。尤其以投保 30 億元以上的公司，通常議價能力強大，本文從透過德菲法與分析層級法之應用，本研究之目的在於確認實施新制天災險商品費率制度之後可能產生之影響項目，並衡量正面與負面看法孰重孰輕；各影響項目之權重為何，如此即可得知新制天災險商品費率制度對台灣產險業所產生之效益與風險。
研究結果發現：
一、 整體而言，台灣產險業對於實施新制天災險之後可能產生的效應基本上多持正面之期待與思考，受訪專家對於可能產生的負面影響事項多給予相對較低的質量，也就是研究結果顯示，在簽署 ECFA之後，專家之共同看法是「效益」大於「風險」。
二、 實施天災保費漲價影響導致產險公司刻意壓低純火保費而無法反映真正純火費率。
根據以上結論，本研究對台灣的產險業有如下之建議：
一、 實施新制天災保險商品制度對台灣產險業而言雖然是正面效益多於負面風險，但僅止於有助於台灣產險業於天災險保費調漲，針對非天災火險保費規劃一套健全制度。
二、 建置天災準備金於負債科目項下並激勵業者於新制天災險之費率釐訂及模型建置刻不容緩。
Abstracts:In subtropical Taiwan, at the junction of continental plates, typhoons, floods, earthquakes and other natural disasters occur frequently made, coupled with the development of the economy, population density, rapid concentration and accumulation of assets, so that a variety of natural disasters caused by economic loss of a substantial increase in concentration. However,after rate liberalization,the approach to determine the rates of natural disasters is indeed worth noting that issues of concern. Company to underwrite more than usually 30 million trigger strong bargaining,The purpose of this study is,by emplaying Dephi method and Analytic Hierarchy process ,to confirm the profits and risks on implementation of the new system of natural disasters rate.The results showed that common view of the experts to the implementation the new system of natural disaster is "benefits" greater than "risk".Moreover, the implementation of natural disasters premium might lead insurance companies to lower the pure fire premiums so that can not reflect the true pure fire rate.According to the findings ,this study has following recommendations:First, to implement the new system of natural disaster，in fact,is only helpful to reflect the real rate of natural disaster but only nothing else to benfit real rate of non- natural disasters. It is necessary to develop a comprehensive model to price the non- natural disasters.
Second ,to build natural disasters reserve under the liability to verify this kind of reserve is not the profitowned by shareholders. |
