受到2008金融海嘯的影響，使得歐美經濟陷於泥淖時，中國大陸卻在此時依然擁有保有高度的經濟成長，儼然成為引領全球經濟成長的重要支柱。但是在2012年的今天，看空中國大陸經濟的情緒越來越高漲，而其中對中國大陸影響最嚴重的，便是地方政府因為預算赤字所產生的地方債務問題。中國大陸的地方政府藉由借新債償舊債的方式來償還即將到期的債務，因此我們將探討利用借新債償舊債的方式償債對於中國大陸的匯率會有什麼影響。 本文採用Cagan Model和Public Saving的兩個模型來做探討。藉由Cagan Model的預期方式來研究在預期因為預算赤字導致債務累積上升的情況下，對於匯率有什麼樣的影響。同時藉由Public Saving的模型來分析經濟成長對預算赤字的影響，進而探討是否影響其匯率。 本研究顯示出二個主要結果： (1)當預期一個國家的政府所累積的債務過高時，將會導致匯率的升高(本國貨幣貶值、 外國貨幣升值)；(2)政府所累積的債務多寡，會受到該國經濟成長的強度影響，進而影響其匯率水準。 When America and Europe were facing the economic depression in 2008, Mainland China still maintained high economic growth and became the leader of global economic growth. In 2012, budget deficits of local Chinese governments have resulted in serious debt. The problem is that Chinese local governments continue borrowing more money in order to pay back the old debts. The purpose of this study is to explore the affect of the expected debts caused by budget deficit on exchange rate in China. This study uses two research models: Cagan Model and Public Saving. First, to explore the affect of expect debts caused by budget deficit on exchange rate by Cagan Model. Second, to use the Public Saving model to explore how economic growth affects budget deficit, and analyses whether it affects the exchange rate. The results of this study reveal as follows: (1) the exchange rate will appreciate (the domestic currency devaluate, foreign currency appreciate) when one country’s expect debts are too high; (2) Government’s accumulated debts are effect by the strength of economic growth, therefore affecting the exchange rate in China.
