| Abstract: | 央行為因應金融海嘯，採取寬鬆的貨幣政策，欲刺激經濟市場景氣。受到這股資金行情影響，使得國內房地產市場大幅上漲，特別是大台北都會區房價屢創新高，並且出現過度投資行為。房價高漲，使高房價在民怨調查報告中排行首位，更讓房價面臨泡沫化危機。為了抑制房價不合理飆漲，政府自2009年第三季起陸續實施諸多抑制房價措施，包括選擇性信用管制、健全房屋市場方案、豪宅稅、奢侈稅、實價登錄及合宜住宅等政策，其目的為避免授信過度集中以穩定金融、打擊投資客炒作房地產並促使房價回歸合理行情及防止房價泡沫。
本研究透過統計分析及T檢定，研究政府抑制房價措施實施前後對於各項變數是否產生顯著變化，藉以了解政府抑制房價措施對銀行房屋貸款、大台北都會區房價、交易量及不動產經營業之影響。
研究結果顯示政府實施抑制房價措施使銀行房屋貸款餘額季增率下降；大台北都會區各項房價指標不跌反漲並且創下歷史新高；住宅買賣移轉棟數明顯減少及買賣成交天數稍有延長；不動產經營業經營家數逆勢增加、但營業額則受到政策影響而下滑。
In order to stimulate the economy market boom, the central bank had taken eased monetary policy in response to the financial crisis. Influenced by the flood of funds, the domestic real estate market raised sharply, especially the real estate in the Taipei metropolitan area. The price record creates new high repeatedly and brought out over-investment behavior. The rising house price was ranked first in the grievances investigation report and leading the house price faced bubble crisis. In order to inhibit unreasonable prices soaring, the government has implemented many measures to curb housing prices since the third quarter of 2009, including the policies of the selective credit control, improve the housing market program, Mansion tax, Luxury tax ,Net login and Appropriate residential, etc. The purpose for those policies are to avoid credit excessive concentration to stabilize financial, to combat investors real estate speculation, to procure housing prices return to reasonable prices and to prevent the housing bubble.
In this study, we use statistical analysis and T-test, to study if there is any significant change before and after the government implement curbing house price policies against every variable. We would like to understand the effect of government curbing house price measure against bank housing loans, the Taipei metropolitan area housing prices, trading volume and real estate management industry.
The study results indicate that the government implement measures to curb housing prices reduced quarter growth rate of bank housing loan balance. The Taipei metropolitan area housing prices index goes up instead of down, and be a new high record. The residential sale transfer numbers significantly reduced and the trading turnover days slightly extend. The number of the real estate management industry trend to increase, but the turnover declines because of the policy. |
