| 摘要: | 本文想要預測少子化對大專院校招生的影響，我們將學校的招生人數定義為供給，想要就讀大專院校的學生定義為需求。以100學年度的資料為基礎，預測未來所有年度的行為。結果顯示總供給人數259,101人，到2028年總需求人數141,051人，該年總缺額為118,050人。一般傳統大學日間部供給人數112,612人，需求人數從2015年的107,833人，下滑至2028年的67,649人，該年缺額為44,963人。而技職體系日間部供給人數116,022人，需求人數從2015年的105,282下滑至2028年的65,002人，其缺額為51,020人。整體而言，到2029年時（118學年度）共有101所大學和技術學院受到影響，其中日夜間部共有59所大學超過70％科系停止招生。
This paper focus on predict the low fertility rate of influence institutions enrollment. Our definition of school enrollment for the supply. Based on 100 years data, predict future trends. That the number of total supply is 259,101. If to 2028 year, number of total demand is 141,051. The total shortfall of this year is 118,050. The number of total supply in traditional universities is 112,612. Number of demand 107,833(2015) slipped to 67,649(2028). This year vacancy is 44,963. The number of supply in Universities of science and technology is 116,022. Number of demand 105,282(2015) slipped to 65,002(2028). This year vacancy is 51,020. Overall, total 101 traditional universities and Universities of science & technology will be affect in 2029 year(118academic year). There are 59 of that universities over 70% department to stop the enrollment. |
