總體經濟對臺灣房價非線性影響之研究

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Title:	總體經濟對臺灣房價非線性影響之研究
Other Titles:	The study of nonlinear impact of macroeconomics on housing price in Taiwan
Authors:	程采晴;Cheng, Tsai-Ching
Contributors:	淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班聶建中;Nieh, Chien-Chung
Keywords:	房價指數;總體經濟因素;平滑移轉模型;House Price Index;Macroeconomics Factors;Smooth Transition Model
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-04-13 10:51:57 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	近年來台灣各地區房價不合理的漲幅成為民怨之首，其中受國內外金融情勢的干擾，使台灣房市遭受嚴重打擊，顯示總體面的變化可引起房地產結構性轉變，此研究便透過觀察總體經濟指標分析各台灣地區房地產行情，並採用非線性方法之平滑移轉迴歸模型，以貨幣供給成長率當作門檻變數，針對1998第一季至2011年第四季台北市、新北市、台中市、高雄市以及台灣的房價指數，探討總體經濟中的貨幣供給成長率、五大行庫新承做購屋貸款利率、消費者物價指數、失業率對台灣房價的影響程度。實證結果指出各區貨幣供給成長率在門檻值下，貸款利率是影響各區房價變動的主要因素，反映政府藉優惠貸款利率刺激房地產的買氣，卻也促使資金氾濫產生房價過熱，消費者物價指數對房價成正相關，說明房地產具保值性能抑制物價膨脹。因此，修正總體經濟面能有效平衡台灣房價的走勢，政府應善用貸款利率以提早預防房地產市場受危機衝擊的影響。 In recent years, housing price is unreasonable rise in several regions of Taiwan, in which is influenced by domestic and foreign financial circumstance. Housing price change can be explained from economical fundamental. This study figure out how the macroeconomics factors affect housing price in Taiwan. Applying the method of smooth transition model and utilizing the growth rate of money supply as a transition variable, discuss macroeconomics which involve in the growth rate of money supply, the interest rate on mortgage loan of five largest banks, consumer price index, and the rate of unemployment nonlinear impact on housing price in Taiwan from 1988Q1 to 2011Q4.Analyzing the cities include in Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung. The empirical result verified that interest rate is nonlinear impact on real estate in Taiwan under the different interval of the growth rate on money supply. Housing price in the north of Taiwan is affected by the rate on mortgage loan is more smooth than housing price in the south of Taiwan. In conclusion, the government uses the interest rate on mortgage loan properly to prevent real estate from falling in a crisis.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Banking and Finance] Thesis

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