農業金融機構之營運績效，以不動產放款貢獻比例最高。故本研究以近二十年都市化較明顯之都市型農會個案為例，首先應用OLS探討個案農會之不動產放款與總體變數之動態關連性。實證結果顯示，M1B、股價指數、景氣對策信號燈、CPI、M1B*股價指數(交乘項)對放款金額的影響均為顯著。其中，M1B的影響為正向。但股價指數卻與放款金額成反比關係。景氣對策信號燈對放款則顯著的正相關。再者是CPI指數，其與放款金額呈負向變化。M1B*股價指數(交乘項)與放款金額呈正向變化。本文進一步透過分量迴歸模型探討各影響因子在不同分位數下的放款金額關係，發現除了景氣對策信號燈有較明顯的正負號變化外，其他三個變數均與多元迴歸結果一致。這些結果可供風險承擔能力相對薄弱且競爭日益激烈之農業金融機構為政策方向之參考。 關鍵字：農業金融法、雙元金融、農業金庫銀行、多元迴歸、分量迴歸 Among the operating performance of the agricultural financial institutions, the highest proportion of contribution is real estate loans. In this study, we select the more urbanization farmers’ association during the two decades. We first apply the OLS model to investigate the correlation between real estate loan of farmers'' associations and four related macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that M1B, stock index, monitoring indicators, CPI and M1B * Stock Price Index (cross multiply term) are significant on the loan amount. Where M1B has a positive impact on the loan.amount. Stock index was negative correlated with the loan amount. Monitoring indicators has a positive significant correlation with the loan amount. Moreover, the CPI index exhibits a negative change to the loan amount. M1B * Stock Price index (cross multiply term) has a positive change to the loan amount. We further to apply the quantile regression model to investigate significant of the variables to different quantile loan amount. The results represent that most of the variables has the same sign with OLS model except monitoring indicators. The results can provide for agricultural financial institutions as the policy reference which’s risk-taking ability is relatively weak and increasingly competitive.
