淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/87174
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    题名: 景氣效果下總體, 財務指標對臺灣電子業報酬之非線性影響
    其它题名: The non-linear effect of macroeconomic factors and financial indicators on the return of electronic industry in Taiwan under the variation of business cycle
    作者: 張家峰;Chang, Chia-Feng
    贡献者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班
    聶建中
    关键词: GDP成長率;負債比;匯率;營收成長率;GDP;Debt ratio;Exchange rate;Sales Revenue;Panel smooth transition regression models(PSTR)
    日期: 2012
    上传时间: 2013-04-13 10:49:28 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文利用Gonza′lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005)所發展的縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型，以GDP成長率比率為模型中的轉換變數，觀察台灣GDP成長率對台灣電子業之資產報酬率及股價是否存在平滑移轉效果，並進一步探討後發現在不同的GDP成長區間下，解釋變數匯率、負債比率、營收成長率對電子業之資產報酬率及股價存在不同的效果，研究顯示如下在GDP成長率小於-0.1065%的情況下，公司經營層面上可以在景氣走壞的情況透過貶值、降低負債比率、增加營收成長率來提升資產報酬率在；GDP成長率大於-0.1065%的情況下公司經營層面上同樣可以透過降低負債比率、增加營收成長率來提升資產報酬率，但匯率將會失去作用。在GDP成長率小於-0.0867%的情況下發生升值、增加負債比率、降低營收成長率將會使投資人持有個股之股價攀升；在GDP成長率大於-0.0867%的情況下，發生貶值、降低負債比率、增加營收成長率將會使投資人持有個股之股價攀升。
    This study adopts the empirical model of Gonza''lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005) to verify whether the panel smooth transition effect exists in the GDP variable. This research use Regression Model to analyze the nonlinear impact of GDP on return among electric industry in Taiwan.
    The results show that there are significant positive effect of exchange rate and sales revenues and significant negative effect of debt ratio on ROA during the lower region where GDP is less than -0.1065%. When GDP is larger than 0.1065%, there still are significant positive effect of sales revenues and significant negative effect of debt ratio on ROA during the upper region. But the exchange rate is not significant.
    There are significant positive effect of debt ratio and significant negative effect of exchange rate and sales revenue on stock price during the lower region where GDP is less than -0.0867%. When GDP is larger than 0.0867%, there are significant positive effect of exchange rate and sales revenues and significant negative effect of debt ratio on stock price during the upper region.
    显示于类别:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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