胡錦濤時期的對外政策智庫

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Title:	胡錦濤時期的對外政策智庫
Other Titles:	China foreign policy think tanks under Hu Jintao era
Authors:	馮英志;Feng, Ying-Chih
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班林中斌;Lin, Chong-Pin
Keywords:	智庫(思想庫);中國外交決策;中國對美政策;和平崛起;話語權;Think Tank;China Foreign Policy Decision-Making;China Policy toward America;Peaceful Rising;Discourse Power
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-04-13 10:35:20 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	近年隨中國崛起並積極參與國際事務，加上外交政策的專業化，政府更需要向國際關係研究機構與學者諮詢外交事務，外交智庫(中國大陸稱為「思想庫」)逐漸涉入外交決策流程。本研究將以從中國外交智庫歷史、當代功能及政策內容，以及未來可能發展兩方面，並以中國對美政策為例，來分析外交智庫的影響力與未來面貌。中國外交智庫在毛澤東時期已經存在，但在以個人領袖魅力與革命世代為背景的毛澤東與鄧小平時期，大部分外交決策都由最高領導人與其幕僚一手敲定。直到江澤民與胡錦濤時期決策模式走向「集體決策」，加上中國面臨複雜的國際事務，外交事務需資詢專業，外交智庫才得以進入決策流程。外交智庫共可分為半官方智庫、社科院智庫與大專院校附屬智庫三類，其中半官方智庫藉可藉由正式的行政管道向上級呈交研究報告，以及非正式的「關係」私下建言來影響決策，對政策影響力最大。但本研究以「和平崛起」至「和平發展」案例與相關分析中觀察出智庫有限的影響力。若涉及國家外交戰略方向等議題，智庫的影響力限於研究與政策辯論等範圍，智庫研究可能列入官方最終決策的考量。外交智庫的功能與角色共可分為對內部與外部兩個面向。對內有政策諮詢與建議、政策辯論、於「集體學習」中授課、人才「旋轉門」以及政策宣傳等功能；對外則為二軌外交與公共外交的執行者。外交智庫學者與美國專家在對美有三個共同觀點：世界格局重心轉移至東亞、「鬥而不破」的對美政策、以及內政與外交並重的大戰略。美國歷經金融海嘯後經濟遭重挫，世界經濟重心雖然轉移至以中國為中心的東亞，但中美之間實力差距並未因此縮減，故對美仍必須「鬥而不破」，並須找尋內政與外交結合的大戰略。未來中國若欲加強與美在全球政治領導力與話語權上的競爭，僅重視智庫諮詢功能已不能滿足當前需求。北京未來可能藉由擴大各種民間智庫參與政策，使其在國際話語權能與美國一較高下。智庫改革需要政治改革，也象徵外交決策圈的擴大。 As China rise and participate international affair, Chinese government needs international relation specialist for foreign policy advice, so Chinese foreign policy think tank is involving in foreign policy decision-making in resent years. This study focuses on the history, functions, roles, future of think tank, and analyzes the influence of foreign policy think tank. Chinese foreign policy think tank already existed in Mao Zedong era. But for Mao and Deng Xiaoping, they both emphasis on personal authority of the top leadership, think tank did not involving decision-making process. Entering the Jiang Zemin and Hu JinTao era, the personal authority of the top leadership appeared to decline, consensus building within the Communist Party of China politburo become the decision-making body. Following China set up closer link with outside world, facing complicated international affair, greater demand for policy input, and growing professionalism, think tank become more important than before. This study categorizes Chinese foreign think tank in three classifications: semi-official think tanks, academic specialize think tanks, and university-affiliated think tanks. Semi-official think tanks enjoy more privileges because being close to the central power center; they are the most influential among the Chinese foreign policy think tank. Following are the functions and roles of Chinese foreign think tank: foreign policy recommendations and debating, lecturing in politburo collective study, revolving-door, and advocating government policy. They also perform track-two diplomacy and public diplomacy. If Beijing want to pursuit more discourse rights of international affair in the future, developing more functions of think tank would be necessary. In the future, Chinese government may allow civilian think tanks participating foreign policy making process, but it depends on political reform of Chinese government.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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