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    Title: 中美人民幣匯率爭議
    Other Titles: The Sino-U.S. dispute on Renminbi currency exchange rate
    Authors: 卓詩涵;Zhou, Shin-Han
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    林中斌;Lin, Chong-Pin
    Keywords: 人民幣匯率;人民幣法案;人民幣國際化;中國;美國;中美關係;俄國;德國;日本;英國;歐盟;巴西;歐巴馬;布希;Renminbi Currency Exchange Rate,Renminbi;China;U.S.;Sino-U.S. Relations;Russia;German;Japan;UK;EU;Brazil;Bush;Obama
    Date: 2012
    Issue Date: 2013-04-13 10:33:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 中美人民幣匯率爭議始於2003年,期間經歷美國主導期、中國出擊期、中美探索期,2012年3月為止,進入第四個階段:中美穩定期。

    中美兩國出於政治、經濟與社會上不同的考量,在人民幣匯率爭議持有不同的立場,但是在此議題上的作為,又受到兩國核心利益轉換影響。布希政府第一個任期,因為911事件使人民幣匯率爭議重要性亞於中美的合作關係,因此來自美國國會強烈的立法作為,不致讓中美關係因為匯率走上衝突,此為「美國主導期」;布希政府第二個任期,即使美國關注焦點重新回到國內經濟狀況,卻因為2007年次貸危機與2008年金融危機,讓華府在人民幣議題上有心無力,使爭議主導權轉移到中國手上,二度將人民幣匯率與美元掛鉤,此為「中國出擊期」;2009年接棒的歐巴馬政府,雖然在人民幣議題上採取較布希更為積極的態度,但是北京卻因為中國經濟嚴重受到美國經濟下滑影響,在2008年與2009年分別出現10年來首度經濟成長率與出口貿易總額負增長,引發北京化被動為主動,要求美國維護中國利益。兩國數度針鋒相對,卻從未轉向衝突,此為「中美探索期」;2012年3月為止,中美人民幣匯率爭議正在「中美穩定期」,兩國各自為彼此的定位做了調整,美國接受與中國合作符合美國利益;中國則認為合作是中美關係的基礎,雖然雙方仍然存在歧見,但是在匯率與諸多國際重大議題上兩國逐漸展現合作作為。

    在美國與中國官方立場之外,本論文也分別討論中國與美國學者對於人民幣升值的立場以及理由。並討論目前國際上主要經濟體俄國、德國、日本、英國、歐盟與巴西的人民幣匯率爭議立場。

    回顧10年中美人民幣匯率爭議,兩國從未因為匯率議題而走向實際衝突。目前受到中國官方與學者支持人民幣匯率升值的跡象以及美國要求人民匯率升值的理由越來越薄弱,加上中美合作趨勢與國際因素等諸多理由支持下,未來中美很難因為人民幣匯率爭議轉向衝突或是貨幣戰。
    The Sino-U.S. dispute on renminbi currency exchange rate started from 2003. There are four stages of the dispute: U.S. leading times, China sally times, Sino-U.S. grope times, till March 2012, the fourth one:Sino-U.S. stable times.
    Out of political, economic and society considerations, China and America has different standpoints on RMB exchange rate. However, the shift of the core interest influences the exterior action. In first Bush’s administration, the Sino- U.S. relationship is more important than the issue of exchange rate. Therefore, although the stress from U.S. congress is servere, no conflicts occur. This is “ the U.S. leading times”; In second Bush’s administration, even though U.S. pay its attention back into economy, the second debt crisis in 2007 and the financial crisis in 2008 distracts the U.S. from the RMB issue, the predominant power go to china, the RMB exchange rate pegged to US dollar again. This is “the China sally times”; The Obama administration took a more active attitude toward RMB issue than Bush’s, under the influence of American economic situation, Bejing decided to changing from passive to active, urging US to protect China’s asset. In this time, tit for tat happens, but never getting worse to conflict. This is “The Sino-U.S. grope times”; till March 2012, it’s “the Sino-U.S. stable times”. The two sides make adjustment in the position on each other. America adapts cooperation with China fitting with its interest; China believes that cooperation is the foundation of Sino-U.S. relationships. Even the differences between the two sides remain exist, however, in most crucial international hot issues and exchange rate issue, the two countries started to stand on the same side.
    In addition to the official’s point of view of China and America, this thesis will introduce Chinese and American scholars’ point of view and supporting reasons on renminbi currency excahge rate. Furthermore, this thesis will discuss the standpoint of Renminbi currency exchange rate of major economies of the world, including Russia, German, Japan, UK, EU and Brazil.
    Reviewing the Sion- U.S. dispute on Renminbi currency exchange rate during these ten years, these two countries never go to conflict because of the exchange rate issue. In the future, it’s getting hard to becoming conflict or currency war between China and America because of the dispute of RMB. Since more evidence show that China supports the appreciation of RMB, as well as the supporting reasons of America to force the appreciation of RMB is getting weaker. Besides, not to mention the international factors, the trend of China- US cooperation is getting obvious.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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