貿易條件變動對中國大陸經濟的影響

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Title:	貿易條件變動對中國大陸經濟的影響
Other Titles:	The effect of fluctuations in China's terms of trade on China's economy
Authors:	高士元;Gao, Shih-Yuan
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班李志強
Keywords:	貿易條件;NBTT;China Economy;RMB exchange rate;Industrial Structure;匯率變動;中國大陸經濟;產業結構
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-04-13 10:32:43 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文探討近年來中國大陸價格貿易條件變動明顯趨向惡化的原因。本文認為，現行人民幣匯率升值、國際原物料價格上揚與FDI流入金額擴大是衍生中國價格貿易條件加速惡化的問題所在。　　經由文獻探討與實證分析佐證，發現人民幣匯率升值以來並未如大多數文獻所預期的會改善中國價格貿易條件，反而助長其惡化，之中更深層的原因在於「合成謬誤」趨勢發展下，發展中國家出口商品數量增加與同質性趨近，導致人民幣匯率的升值，無法有效提升出口商品價格，所造成反差加速中國價格貿易條件惡化。國際原物料價格上揚與FDI流入金額擴大符合一般預期，與中國價格貿易條件呈現負相關性，然值得注意的是，國際原物料價格持續高漲，成為未來中國價格貿易條件改善的隱憂。　　從《十一五規劃》強調「促增長」到《十二五規劃》強調「調結構」經濟社會發展目標的轉變，突顯價格貿易條件持續惡化與現行產業結構方式將不利於中國大陸經濟可持續發展。未來，中國產業結構調整必須在既有比較優勢產業基礎下，逐步轉向技術密集、資本密集型的高附加價值產業，同時避免產業結構轉型速度過快，造成價格貿易條件加速惡化，擴大國家社會福利損失，進而影響社會秩序穩定。 This article probes into the reason why the effect of fluctuations in China’s Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT) on China’s economy obviously tends to worsen in recent years. This article reasoned that current RMB exchange rate appreciate, international raw material price raise up and FDI flow increase to be to derive problem that NBTT worsen with higher speed in China. Proving via document discussion and empirical analysis founded that RMB exchange rate appreciate that didn’t meet with most documents expectancy couldn’t improve China’s NBTT. The main reason lie in “Fallacy of Composition” developing continuously, the quantity of the export commodities of developing country increases with the homogeneity convergence, lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate of RMB, unable to raise the commodity price of export effectively, the contrast caused China’s NBTT to worsen quickly. It accords with general expectancy that the international raw material price raises up and FDI flow increases, negative relevance with the NBTT of China, but it is noteworthy that the international raw material price runs high continuously, become the improved hindrance of the NBTT in the future. From “promote the growth” in “Eleventh Five-year Plan” to “adjusting structure” in “Twelfth five-year plan” of transition of the development goal of economics and society, highlighted NBTT worsen and unfavorable to the economic sustainable development of China with the current industrial structure way continuously. In the future, China''s industrial structure adjustment must be under inherent industry''s foundation of a comparative advantaging, upgrade to high additional value industry of the skill-intensive and capital-intensive progressively, avoid the pace of industrial structure transformation grows too fast at the same time, cause the NBTT to worsen with higher speed and expand national social welfare losses, and then influence the steady of social order.
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