從《十一五規劃》強調「促增長」到《十二五規劃》強調「調結構」經濟社會發展目標的轉變，突顯價格貿易條件持續惡化與現行產業結構方式將不利於中國大陸經濟可持續發展。未來，中國產業結構調整必須在既有比較優勢產業基礎下，逐步轉向技術密集、資本密集型的高附加價值產業，同時避免產業結構轉型速度過快，造成價格貿易條件加速惡化，擴大國家社會福利損失，進而影響社會秩序穩定。 This article probes into the reason why the effect of fluctuations in China’s Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT) on China’s economy obviously tends to worsen in recent years. This article reasoned that current RMB exchange rate appreciate, international raw material price raise up and FDI flow increase to be to derive problem that NBTT worsen with higher speed in China.
Proving via document discussion and empirical analysis founded that RMB exchange rate appreciate that didn’t meet with most documents expectancy couldn’t improve China’s NBTT. The main reason lie in “Fallacy of Composition” developing continuously, the quantity of the export commodities of developing country increases with the homogeneity convergence, lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate of RMB, unable to raise the commodity price of export effectively, the contrast caused China’s NBTT to worsen quickly.
It accords with general expectancy that the international raw material price raises up and FDI flow increases, negative relevance with the NBTT of China, but it is noteworthy that the international raw material price runs high continuously, become the improved hindrance of the NBTT in the future.
From “promote the growth” in “Eleventh Five-year Plan” to “adjusting structure” in “Twelfth five-year plan” of transition of the development goal of economics and society, highlighted NBTT worsen and unfavorable to the economic sustainable development of China with the current industrial structure way continuously.
In the future, China''s industrial structure adjustment must be under inherent industry''s foundation of a comparative advantaging, upgrade to high additional value industry of the skill-intensive and capital-intensive progressively, avoid the pace of industrial structure transformation grows too fast at the same time, cause the NBTT to worsen with higher speed and expand national social welfare losses, and then influence the steady of social order.