影響人民幣境外需求因素之實證研究2000-2010

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Title:	影響人民幣境外需求因素之實證研究2000-2010
Other Titles:	An empirical study on the influnence of RMB overseas demand factors 2000-2010
Authors:	鄧楷諭;Teng, Kai-Yu
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班郭建中;陳建甫
Keywords:	人民幣;RMB;境外需求因素;結算職能;間接估計法;規模測算;overseas demand factors;Clearing functions;indirect estimation method;circulate the scale
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2013-04-13 10:32:28 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	人民幣國際化是近年來全球金融體系所關注的重要課題，但其發展卻明顯嚴重滯後於中國的經濟成長。直到2008年全球金融海嘯爆發後，大陸政府才開始積極推動人民幣的對外投資與貿易結算，以爭取人民幣在亞洲市場甚至全球市場的主導權。本文從境外人民幣現金需求因素為出發點來探討人民幣國際化，在貨幣國際化的初期階段，結算職能為其必要條件。而人民幣現金的境外使用需求較能體現結算職能的實際狀況，因此人民幣境外需求的因素研究為人民幣國際化研究中相當重要的課題之一。本文第一章闡述人民幣境外需求的研究動機與目的，並對於整體研究架構進行描述；第二章文獻回顧主要探討貨幣國際化的相關理論、人民幣境外流通現狀與回顧，其他學者對境外貨幣規模測算研究，並為接下來的實證分析鋪陳；第三章重新建構符合實際情況的人民幣貨幣需求模型，並採用間接估計法(本地需求法)對其模型算進行檢驗與估計，來測算近年來人民幣現金的境外存量，並針對2000 年到2010 年的規模波動進行分析；第四章將所得的人民幣現金境外存量與境外需求因素進行定量分析，也就是利用相關性分析與回歸分析來探討境外存量與跨境流通需求因素間之互動關係，並對其做出解釋；最後第五章對於實證模型與境外需求因素做通盤整理，藉此分析目前人民幣國際化實際發展問題。 RMB internationalization is a great subject for the global financial sy the Clearing function is a necessary condition in the early stage of the currency internationalization. stem in recent years, but the development is seriously lagging behind China''s economic growth. until after the outbreak of the global financial tsunami in 2008, the mainland government began to actively promote foreign investment and trade settlement in RMB, in order to strive for the dominant power of the RMB in Asian market and even in global market . This thesis use the offshore RMB cash demand as the starting point to explore the RMB internationalization , the Clearing function is a necessary condition in the early stage of the currency internationalization. What’s more, overseas demand of RMB cash can reflect the actual situation of Clearing function function ,so the RMB overseas demand factor is one of the most important topic on the study of RMB internationalization. The first chapter of this article will expatiate on the motive and purpose of the research on RMB overseas demand, and describe the overall framework; The second chapter of literature review will mainly discuss the related theory of the currency internationalization, the status quo and review of the RMB foreign circulation ,and the research on circulate the scale of foreign currency of other scholars’, then lay out for the following empirical analysis ; The third chapter will reconstitute to meet the actual situation of RMB currency demand model, use the indirect estimation method ( local demand method) to test and estimate the model and measure the foreign stock of RMB cash in recent years, then analyze for the size of fluctuations from 2000 to 2010; The overseas stock of RMB cash and overseas demand factors will be analyzed quantitatively in the fourth chapter, which is discussing about the the interactive relationship between foreign stocks and cross-border flow of demand factors by using correlation analysis and regression analysis,then, make a explanation to it; Finally, there is a overall arrangement for the empirical model and overseas demand factors in the fifth chapters, take this analyzing the actual development problem of RMB internationalization.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Thesis

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