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|Other Titles: ||Military strategy of the CCP (Chinese communist party) navy in the South China Sea|
|Authors: ||許惟順;Shan, Wei-Shuenn|
|Keywords: ||中共海軍;專家學者深度訪談法;情境分析法;戰略分析;(CCP/PRC/ PLA) Navy;Expert in-depth Interview;Scenario Analysis;Military Strategy Analysis|
|Issue Date: ||2013-04-13 10:32:25 (UTC+8)|
本研究主軸以「文獻分析法」（documentary analysis method）為主，藉由專業出版品的論述，闡釋中國的戰略目的與方向、海軍發展與轉變、南海戰略轉型與未來影響；另外以專家學者深度訪談(Expert Depth Interview)之看法加強文獻之論証，佐以情境分析法(Scenario Analysis)為証，從中引證出中共海軍建軍之轉變與南海戰略二者的聯帶關係，以作為研究中共海軍南海軍事戰略與南海各國爭議之關連性，探討中共南海戰略未來發展之走向。
The South China Sea is known to hold abundant crude petroleum resources. This has led to many sovereign and political controversies in the region, and prompted countries bordering the South China Sea to emphasize their ability to project regional power while at the same time allying with the US through joint maneuvers as well as economic co-operation to ensure their interests. In recent years the PRC has achieved considerable technological advancement on the strength of their booming economic growth in the past decades, and this has brought their weapons development to another level. As a result, their role in the South China Sea has changed to a certain extent. With Chinese nationalism on the rise, consolidating national interests has become their first priority, and their sea power strategy has changed. The PRC’s real intention now is to use the South China Sea as an opportunity to aggressively expand its sea power by developing new lines of surface and subsurface naval vessels as well as aircraft carriers. There is no doubt that the PRC intends to build up a formidable military power that will enable it to hold opposing forces at bay and enjoy absolute superiority in the region.
This research relies primarily upon the “documentary analysis method,” referencing professional publications to discuss the direction and purpose of PRC military strategy, how the CCP Navy is developing and changing, and changes in the country''s South China Sea military strategy as well as the impact thereof. This research will also include an “Expert In-depth Interview” to further reinforce the points made through documentary analysis. In addition, with the help of “Scenario Analysis” we can trace evidence of a correlation between changes in the CCP naval development strategy and its South China Sea military strategy. This study will go on to examine linkages between the PRC’s naval strategy and its disputes with South China Sea nations, an on that basis will explore the future direction of the PRC’s military strategy vis-à-vis the South China Sea.
Through this research, we have come to a realization that sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea are handled in one of two ways. One approach relies on diplomacy, while the other relies on military force, and the impact of the approach employed determines whether problems will be mitigated or exacerbated. A military approach is more likely to intensify problems, while a diplomatic approach is more likely to mitigate them.The interplay between escalation and defusing of tensions has given rise to a model for movement toward conflict. This model enables us to understand the reasons for conflict, the processes thereof, and whether the situation will move in the direction of war or peace. This model can facilitate the development of a more reasonable basis for deciding whether to use military or diplomatic means to handle regional conflicts and controversies. In the expert’s interview, we learn that future PRC policies on South China Sea are likely to stress several points: aircraft carriers as the starting point for strengthening command and control capabilities; a dual focus on development of both surface and subsurface vessels; preventing seizure of islands by other nations, and strengthening the nation''s capacity to project military power; and use of non-bellicose military action to bolster the nation''s strategic undertakings. The CCP (PLA) navy regards enhancement of its sea power as the foundation for achievement of the following goals: upgrading of its military capabilities; improvement of its ability to hold opposing forces at bay; consolidation of its national sovereignty; maintenance of the PRC''s access to petroleum; and assurance that petroleum shipping lanes are kept open.
South China Sea controversies are now becoming a global issue. It would thus be beneficial for our country to issue a public statement on the South China Sea issue. We have several preliminary suggestions for current South China Sea policy: 1. The government should move toward establishing a national-level strategic plan for the South China Sea. 2. We should develop basic infrastructures in the Pratas Islands and on Taiping Island. 3. We should boost our ability to defend these two islands. It is hoped that the above will serve as useful reference for the ROC authorities, and that they will promote our country’s development in the South China Sea.
|Appears in Collections:||[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文|
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