QE2與人民幣升值的政治博奕

淡江大學機構典藏 > 國際事務學院 > 中國大陸研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/86955

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题名:	QE2與人民幣升值的政治博奕
其它题名:	The game theory between QE2 and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate
作者:	陳培箴;Chen, Pei-Chen
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班張五岳;Chang, Wu-Ueh
关键词:	貨幣寬鬆;貿易逆差;美中關係;人民幣升值;人民幣匯率;QE2;Appreciation of RMB;RMB exchange rate;Trade deficit;Chinese–US relations
日期:	2013
上传时间:	2013-04-13 10:31:23 (UTC+8)
摘要:	近年來，全球金融環繞在股市起伏劇烈的壓力，危機爆發使人們收入減少，政府卻立即開始增加支出，負擔失業給付、減稅…等，來刺激景氣回升。許多國家民間部門的債務也由政府來承擔，各國政府採取投入龐大金額紓困方案，解救其金融系統免於崩壞。　　為此，美國舉債數字日益攀升，國債總額已超越14兆美元，與GDP之比接近100%。因此美國於2010年11月由聯準會展開第二次貨幣量化寬鬆政策（QE2, Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy 2），以持續大量印製鈔票，平均每月750億美金的規模來收購美國長期公債，公債購買額度共約為六千億美金。然而，政策實施後，大規模的投資熱錢進駐新興市場國家，而使其幣值上升，首當其衝即為人民幣。中國在匯改後，人民幣對美元雖有大幅升值的空間，但中國政府依舊刻意壓低人民幣。另一方面，美國政府一面強調對中國貿易逆差問題，一面又不放寬對中國出口管制，僅以要求人民幣單方面升值來挽救美國境內經濟。　　本研究之目的為了解中國將如何應對此次QE2對其整體之衝擊。並探討貿易逆差與人民幣間匯率之變動趨勢及原因。最後並分析美中雙方針對此議題不同立場上的斡旋及近期美中關係之發展。 The aim of this thesis is to investigate how would China respond to the impact resulted by the act of QE2, hence further explore the causes of changes in trade deficit and RMB currency depreciation. Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman of America, set sail on the QE2, which is a $1 trillion rescue ship including buying up $600 billion of Treasury bond from banks on November 3, 2010. Due to the U.S. has had an adverse balance of trade for the second decades running, Washington has been pressuring Beijing to revalue RMB in order to resolve the problem of its whopping trade deficit. However, it makes no sense for the United States to play up trade deficit against China on the one hand, and continues its export control on the other. Base on this context, the U.S and China are neither allies nor enemies; competitors in some areas, perhaps partners in others. This thesis is going to discover the anticipation way of RMB appreciation with trade imbalance between China and the U.S., followed by further discussion about Chinese–US relations according to the game result after the QE2.
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